It wasn't a bad gamble when the Philadelphia Phillies gave future Hall of Fame closer Craig Kimbrel a one-year deal back in December, but certainly there were reasons for skepticism, in the real and fantasy baseball worlds. Kimbrel saved 22 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season, but his strikeout rate fell as the season advanced and the franchise wanted him nowhere near their bullpen for the playoffs. The Phillies employed a committee approach to the ninth inning in their 2022 World Series run and Kimbrel notably struggled in a non-closing role in 2021.
He earned his 13th save in as many chances in Tuesday's 3-1 win at Tampa Bay and continues to thrive as the Phillies' closer. At this point, it does not look like a committee as Kimbrel, when available in a traditional role, is manager Rob Thomson's top choice. LHP Jose Alvarado still lurks, but Kimbrel is the one with a 0.60 ERA and 1.10 FIP since the beginning of June, with a .334 OPS against and 24 strikeouts in 15 innings. He has issued three walks in that span.
Many of us faded Kimbrel in preseason drafts for two reasons. One, the way Alvarado and RHP Seranthony Dominguez thrived last season, it was easy to see Thomson mixing and matching in the ninth inning. This was the case initially. I did not think LHP Gregory Soto, the former Detroit Tigers "All-Star" closer, would play a late-inning role and he has not. Dominguez joined him in setup limbo, but he has been on the injured list for weeks. Alvarado saved five April wins and looked like the best relief pitcher in the land until his injured list stint. He has struggled since giving up 12 hits and seven walks in 10⅔ innings since returning.
The second reason for hesitance was Kimbrel himself. He looked done with Chicago Cubs in 2019-20 before rebounding in 2021 to earn a trade to the contending Chicago White Sox. He struggled as a setup man to RHP Liam Hendriks on the South Side and was inconsistent for the Dodgers, posting a 1.31 WHIP and losing seven games. Kimbrel wants to close, even though he admitted he would handle any role, but he has been so inconsistent in recent seasons that he became difficult to trust.
Kimbrel's recent work has brought back fond memories, with an excellent first-pitch strike percentage and good fastball command. Even though his fastball velocity isn't back to career norms (more like 96 mph), when he commands his fastball, it rises, moves, and is hard for anyone to hit. Kimbrel is third among relief pitchers striking out 40.3% of hitters, mainly with his fastball, but his curveball is back to handling left-handed hitters. Lefties had a .261 batting average against Kimbrel last season and this year it is .159.
Kimbrel and Alvarado should remind fantasy managers that there is major variance with most relief pitchers, and nothing is guaranteed from outing to outing. For now, though, Kimbrel is the Philadelphia relief pitcher for fantasy managers to rely on, and he should sail past 20 saves, making this the 11th time he has done so, and for his sixth franchise. This season might be the unlikeliest one.
Stock rising
Aroldis Chapman, Texas Rangers
The top two relievers in strikeout percentage ahead of Kimbrel are Baltimore Orioles All-Star Felix Bautista and Chapman, recently acquired from the Kansas City Royals for a pair of minor leaguers. Chapman might not move into the ninth-inning role for the first-place Rangers, since veteran LHP Will Smith is handling things competently, but Chapman is having the superior season. Add Chapman for the strikeouts, run prevention and likelihood of piling on holds.
Carlos Hernandez, Kansas City Royals
Meanwhile, back in Kansas City, it seems likely this terrible team will move RHP Scott Barlow by the trade deadline and Hernandez is thriving as a full-time relief pitcher. He struck out 13.2% of hitters last season and he's at 29.2% this year. Hernandez has seen his average fastball velocity jump from 96.8 mph to 99 mph and has allowed a .207 batting average against. That works. Expect plenty of saves in his future.
Hunter Harvey, Washington Nationals
Harvey is the son of former closer Bryan Harvey, who 45 had saves for Florida Marlins in 1993. Hunter has solidified his ninth-inning role by accruing all the team's saves for the past three weeks. His strikeout rate isn't special, as he relies more on his slider and split-finger pitch to induce ground balls. But the Nationals are not a good team, so opportunity is critical and he has plenty of it.
Stock falling
Paul Sewald, Seattle Mariners
The return to health and potential saves for harder-throwing RHP Andres Munoz was always a concern, but Sewald has also struggled lately, permitting runs in three of seven outings. This culminated in Monday's outing in which he quickly turned a four-run lead into a one-run lead. Sewald, who might give up double-digit home runs for the third consecutive season, saw his ERA rise to 3.31.
David Robertson, New York Mets
Robertson is having a fine season, boasting a 1.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, but only has two saves over the past four weeks in part because his team is playing poor baseball. The other reason is because he is occasionally summoned for the top opposing hitters in the eighth inning. This is a positive thing, of course, but for those seeking saves. If the Mets continue to lose, Robertson might be elsewhere in four weeks and not necessarily in the saves mix.