<
        >

          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday's MLB games

          play
          Should you trust Alek Manoah this time? (0:46)

          Blue Jays RHP Alek Manoah returns to the big leagues this weekend but fantasy managers may have some trepidation about relying on him again. (0:46)

          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jul 6, 2023, 08:00 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Friday's MLB games

          By Todd Zola

          • After a week with at least one afternoon game every day, the Friday slate consists of all evening affairs, with three starting at 6:40 ET. Two of the early contests feature great pitching matchups with Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow plus Zack Wheeler and Sandy Alcantara matched up. However, much of the fantasy community will be focused on Detroit for the return of Alek Manoah (55.8% rostered) when the Toronto Blue Jays open a weekend series with the Detroit Tigers. After getting crushed by the Yankees Rookie League club in his first start after being demoted, Manoah rebounded to fan 10 in five innings for Double-A New Hampshire, earning a spot back in the bigs. Normally, the clear call would be taking the wait-and-see route. However, perhaps by design, Manoah will face a Tigers offense with the third-lowest wOBA with a right-hander on the hill. They also fan at a 24.1% clip. In head-to-head leagues with a start limit, you might not want to risk one on Manoah, but if you've held onto him in category leagues, you must still believe in a bounce-back. Keeping him on reserve until he has a good start or two means you miss out on those starts, which are likely needed to help mitigate the ratio damage in the books.

          • He hasn't been officially confirmed for the start as of now, but if he is, lefty James Paxton (44.5%), would be the top streaming option as the Boston Red Sox head into the break with a home series against the Oakland Athletics. Paxton has provided the production the club hoped they'd get from Chris Sale. Paxton sports a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, with a hefty 61 strikeouts in 50 frames. He's in a great spot to enter the midseason hiatus on a strong note, facing a lineup with the fifth-lowest wOBA facing left-handed pitching.

          • Bailey Ober (44.3%) has a tougher opponent than Paxton with the Minnesota Twins hosting the Baltimore Orioles, but Ober has given his club nearly identical numbers as Paxton. After fanning only 40 in his first 46â…“ innings, Ober's strikeouts have picked up lately, with 34 over his last 30â…“ stanzas. He Orioles road wOBA versus righties is below average while their strikeout rate away from Camden Yards is a bit above average.

          • On the surface, Andrew Heaney (33.8%) seems like he has a favorable start with the Texas Rangers visiting the Washington Nationals. However, the Nationals possess the second-lowest strikeout rate facing lefties, with the ninth-highest wOBA against southpaw pitching. Furthermore, Nationals Park is a pitching downgrade from Globe Life Park. Heaney should get solid run support, but his line may not be as helpful as perceived.

          • Aaron Civale (15.7%), on the other hand, has a juicy matchup when the Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals. Civale has hurled at least six frames for three straight outings, sporting a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in that span, albeit with only 13 punchouts in 18â…” frames. The Royals tote the fourth-highest strikeout rate and second-lowest wOBA facing right-handers into Progressive Field.

          • One of the reasons the Nationals fare well against left-handed pitching is they can stack their lineup with right-handed batters and switch-hitters as they did Thursday when facing Cincinnati Reds southpaw Brandon Williamson. Shortstop CJ Abrams was the only lefty swinger, as he likely will be Friday against Heaney. The top hitters to pick up include Lane Thomas (63.5%), Keibert Ruiz (51.3%), Joey Meneses (18.8%), Jeimer Candelario (17.3%) and Stone Garrett (.3%).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday