Inside the Trail Blazers' Damian Lillard trade talks
For teams calling about trading for Damian Lillard, the message from the Portland Trail Blazers has been unambiguous: Bring your best offer and make your team our preferred trade destination. General manager Joe Cronin doesn't plan to operate a transfer portal to the Miami Heat and dutifully deliver history's greatest Blazer to his targeted team.
Ownership plans to honor Lillard's request for a trade, but Blazers officials are telling teams they'll move Lillard for only the deepest return of assets available. Portland is pursuing the sliding scale superstar package of desirable draft picks and high-level young players. For the summer, Cronin's betting the market over Miami.
As he executes the exit of the greatest player in franchise history, executives talking to Cronin describe him as devoid of sentiment. Business for Lillard, business for the Blazers.
As Cronin explores the broader landscape, Lillard's agent, Aaron Goodwin, has been calling prospective trade partners and warning against trading for his client, team executives told ESPN. Goodwin is telling organizations outside of Miami that trading for Lillard is trading for an unhappy player. As interference goes, this is a time-honored agent maneuver to depress offers and clear a path to a predetermined destination.
General managers who talked with ESPN suggested that pressure won't impact how they'll proceed. They would have Lillard under contract for four years, and believe his default mechanism would remain playing hard and well.
In 2019, Lillard pursued the Blazers on a supermax extension and landed a four-year, $176 million deal -- including a $60 million annual average when he's 35 and 36 years old. That's making it harder for the Blazers to trade Lillard, not easier. Some teams see that extension as a back-end blight on their cap.
In a perfect world, Portland would want to accommodate Lillard's wishes to play for Miami. In a perfect world, too, Lillard wouldn't have signed that extension and asked out a year later. In the end, trading a superstar is an imperfect process for a small-market franchise. Cronin has made it clear his allegiance is to the franchise's future, not its past.
Lillard's age and massive contract complicate his value, which will probably land somewhere between the Phoenix Suns' two blockbuster trades before and after the new collective bargaining agreement. A historic package for Kevin Durant and a far lighter deal for Bradley Beal -- it's a wide gulf of assets. Beal's $208 million contract and no-trade clause were unique factors.
As unappealing as the Heat's prospective package might be to the Blazers, can they top it in the marketplace? And if they can't, do they dare keep Lillard and wait out the process to see if offers fluctuate? Brooklyn didn't have the deal on Durant in July that it had at the trade deadline in February.
Miami can offer a maximum of two first-round picks (2028 and 2030), five years of first-round pick swaps, 2022 first-rounder Nikola Jovic and the rights to 2023 first-round pick Jaime Jaquez Jr., both potential rotation players. Because he just signed his rookie-scale contract, Jaquez can't be traded until July 31.
Portland doesn't want guard Tyler Herro and the four years and $120 million owed on his extension, but there are teams that have told ESPN they would surrender a good first-round pick to the Blazers -- maybe something more -- to become a facilitator by taking on Herro in a three-way deal.
In the wake of past trade requests, like those from Durant last season or Anthony Davis in 2019, there are differences borne out of Lillard's determination to get a trade to Miami. The Los Angeles Lakers and Suns gathered up high draft picks in repeated trips to the lottery and developed those assets into future All-Star players. Miami has missed the playoffs three times in the past 15 seasons, which has made it harder to harvest the requisite package for the kind of blockbuster the Blazers want to negotiate. That's also the issue for the LA Clippers, who have interest in a Lillard trade, sources said.
The Heat's draft picks are typically closer to the end of the first round, so Portland will want a blend of picks and young building blocks like the Brooklyn Nets and New Orleans Pelicans got for the Durant and Davis trades: Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson to Brooklyn, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball to New Orleans. Not just picks, but a player like Lauri Markkanen, whom the Utah Jazz acquired in the Donovan Mitchell trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Cronin has set out to unearth a package of players and picks that reflect Lillard's standing as a top-10 to top-15 player in the world, even if the Blazers won't get the full complement of those monster Davis and Durant deals. Because of that, there's reason to expect a methodical, grind-it-out process that could run the length of July and August. For Cronin and the Blazers, Las Vegas Summer League is a chance to talk face-to-face with team executives, separating those reaching out with a perfunctory call on Lillard simply to appease an owner or superstar from those legitimately eager to engage in the groundwork of negotiating a trade.
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Small-market teams such as Utah can't acquire the likes of Lillard in free agency, but armed with draft picks and developing young players, they can become dangerous lurkers in the trade process. The Jazz made a call to check on Lillard, sources said, but that isn't a significant development. An offer would be a development. First, the Jazz must consider if Lillard's timeline at nearly 33 years old makes sense for their young team --- and could they acquire him at a reasonable cost to stay flexible for the next young star who becomes available in trades?
Lillard probably doesn't fit for the Jazz, but he will somewhere, sometime. Maybe it's this summer, maybe it's the desperation of another team's bad start to the regular season. Some teams come aggressively for a new available star player. Those with limited assets offer everything with an understanding they're likely light on what's needed to make them a viable trade partner. More teams lie in wait, hanging on the edges of the process. They hope a restrained offer, coupled with mild upgrades, can eventually secure them a star. That's how Toronto landed San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard five summers ago.
And that's how Miami can still end up landing Lillard. Hang around, wait out the muddled uncertainty of the process and hope the dog days of the summer offseason eat away at rivals' ambitions. Without a trade, Portland can always bring Lillard back for the start of September training camp. That'll invite a tense environment for everyone, especially the organization's bright young core of players. What's worse is settling on a bad deal.
Between now and then, Lillard's reps warning teams of a public relations nightmare can give them pause. Some could steer clear of trade talks, while others could limit the assets they're willing to offer Portland. Still, some executives will still see the opportunity to acquire an All-NBA guard. It just takes one for the Blazers to have a trade partner.
Everyone is motivated to move on, but Cronin has a duty to get maximum value on a Lillard deal. If he can't generate something better in the marketplace this summer, it'll take some strength to stare at Miami's pedestrian package, refuse to relinquish Damian Lillard and bring him back to start the season.
This is the trade of Joe Cronin's NBA life. It doesn't have to go quickly, but it does have to go right.