Let's be upfront: The Aug. 1 trade deadline is almost impossible to predict right now with so many teams in the thick of the playoff race, or at least on the periphery of it with enough time to put together a hot streak and turn a season around. The bad teams don't have much that will interest contenders, and the man who could have made this the trade deadline for all time -- Shohei Ohtani -- isn't going anywhere.
What could turn it into a wild deadline, however, are the four expected contenders who need to get going in a hurry: the Mets, Padres, Cardinals and Mariners. If those teams continue to fade and look into trading away some players, we'll see a lot more action.
Let's see where things stand and look at some potential possibilities that could make this a deadline to remember. For each team, we'll name one player to trade away, trade for -- or, in a few cases, a player to keep despite the temptation to deal him. Our usual rule applies: We can name a player only once and we'll limit our suggestions of relievers, although a bunch of them always get traded. We'll start with the team that the entire deadline could end up revolving around.
St. Louis Cardinals: Trade Paul Goldschmidt
The Cardinals are in last place in the National League Central with a terrible record and will face an offseason task of reconfiguring the rotation with Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty headed into free agency and Adam Wainwright into retirement. So maybe they just blow it all up now, all the way down to trading Goldschmidt, who is a free agent after 2024. On the other hand, they haven't had a losing season since 2007 and the division is so bad that one extended good streak before the trade deadline could get them back in the race.
Realistically though: This team isn't going anywhere in 2023. It's time to think about rebuilding the pitching staff for 2024 and beyond and considering the Cardinals rarely spend big in free agency (Willson Contreras' $87.5 million deal this past offseason is the largest contract they've ever given a player from another team), trading Goldschmidt for some young pitching might be the best way to jumpstart the retooling.
Philadelphia Phillies: Acquire Paul Goldschmidt
OK, so we just traded Goldschmidt. Now we need to find a trade partner. Injuries to Rhys Hoskins and Darick Hall have led to offensive issues at both infield corners for the Phillies. They're 20th in the majors in OPS at first base and 26th at third. Acquire Goldschmidt and they at least can move Alec Bohm, defensive warts and all, back to third. Hoskins is a free agent, so Goldschmidt fills a hole at first for 2024 as well.
The dilemma: Acquiring a player of Goldschmidt's caliber for two playoff races means the Phillies likely have to include one of their top pitching prospects, Andrew Painter (that would be gut-wrenching) or Mick Abel (more likely).
Baltimore Orioles: Acquire Lucas Giolito
The Orioles were criticized for not doing much to upgrade their pitching staff in the offseason, but they've defied the critics with a surprising first half. Still, the rotation ranks just 21st in the majors ERA despite playing in pitcher-friendly Camden Yards. Cole Irvin and Grayson Rodriguez have both struggled in the fifth slot with ERAs over 7.00, so that's an easy upgrade -- and the Orioles are loaded with infielders at the big league and Triple-A levels whom they could include in a deal for a quality starter. Giolito might be the best of the lot as he heads to free agency, and as the White Sox continue to struggle, he's an easy guy to target. He has bounced back from a rough 2022 and has pitched particularly well in June.
Chicago White Sox: Trade Lance Lynn
Look, the White Sox are theoretically still harboring playoff hopes since the American League Central is so bad, but they're a complete mess. Given Tim Anderson's decline this season, there's no guarantee the White Sox even pick up his $14 million option next season, so they need infielders like the Middle Ages needed antibiotics. That's why they're a good match with the Orioles for Giolito -- and if you're going to trade Giolito, you might as well look to deal some other veterans.
Lynn's 6.40 ERA is ugly, mostly because of home run issues, but his strikeout rate is excellent and he chews up innings. I'd like to see him in front of a better defense. You can throw a bunch of relievers in here as well: Joe Kelly, Kendall Graveman, maybe Liam Hendriks. Anderson has been so bad that there would likely be little interest in him. I wouldn't include Dylan Cease since he's not eligible for free agency until after 2025, but that could be the blockbuster to shake up the deadline even if Cease hasn't been as dominant as last season.
Detroit Tigers: Trade Eduardo Rodriguez
Rodriguez got off to an excellent start with a 2.13 ERA in 11 starts before landing on the injured list with a finger injury. He threw a live batting practice session over the weekend and felt "excellent," so he should be back to make at least a couple of starts before the deadline. Of course, like the White Sox, the Tigers are still in the AL Central "race," but they're not good. Rodriguez has an opt-out clause that he's likely to exercise, making a trade even more realistic. He would be one of the top pitchers available, and given where the Tigers stand, it makes sense to trade him.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Acquire Eduardo Rodriguez
Now we need to find a home for Rodriguez. The Diamondbacks are young, exciting and surprisingly at the top of the NL West. They have two excellent starters in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but the rotation thins out in a hurry as Arizona ranks in the bottom third of the majors in rotation ERA. The Diamondbacks have a deep farm system and acquiring Rodriguez as a rental won't require top prospects such as Jordan Lawlar, Druw Jones or Brandon Pfaadt. However, they may have to outbid the Dodgers, who might also be in the starting pitcher market.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Acquire Rich Hill
How invested are the Dodgers in 2023? It was always going to be a step-back season as they're seemingly saving money to go after Ohtani, but in no way did they envision falling from first in fewest runs allowed in the NL -- which they've done the past six seasons -- to the bottom half. Clayton Kershaw has been the only starter to not miss a start, but at least they'll get Julio Urias back soon. A rotation of Kershaw, Urias, Tony Gonsolin and rookies Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan could be good enough to make a second-half run. Still, an additional depth player makes sense given Kershaw's health history and potential inning limits on the rookies. How about old friend Hill, still effective for the Pirates at 43 years old?
New York Yankees: Acquire Lane Thomas
With the timetable on Aaron Judge's return now labeled "sometime this season," the Yankees desperately need offense -- they've been the worst-hitting team in the majors in June with an abysmal slashline. While Josh Donaldson's days in the Bronx are probably coming to an end soon, they do have DJ LeMahieu to play third, not that he has been tearing it up. The outfield can rely on Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney for only so long, so let's go there. Thomas has quietly been very good with the Nationals, with an above-average OPS+ and a batting average hovering around .300. He has got two more years of team control so the Nationals don't have to deal him, but he's an older player (he'll be 28 in August) who might never have more value than right now.
Washington Nationals: Trade Jeimer Candelario
Miami Marlins: Acquire Jeimer Candelario
Aside from Thomas, it definitely makes sense for Washington to cash in on Candelario. The contenders most in need of a third baseman include the Marlins, Yankees and Phillies. The Mariners, Brewers or Cubs could use him as a DH. The Marlins were 16-12 through the end of April despite being outscored by 35 runs thanks to a 10-0 record in one-run games. Well, they're well above .500 in June, but this time it's more legit: They've outscored their opponents by around 40 runs. Miami is next to last in OPS at third base as Jean Segura hasn't worked out, so it needs an upgrade and Candelario is the obvious fit. Baltimore's Ramon Urias, who won the Gold Glove last season, is another possibility, as the Orioles could deal from their infield depth.
Houston Astros: Acquire Alex Verdugo
The Astros swung big for Justin Verlander in 2017 and Zack Greinke in 2019 when Jeff Luhnow was the GM but played it more conservatively under James Click the past two seasons. We don't know what new GM Dana Brown's philosophy will be, but this time around they're chasing the first-place Rangers, so they might need to make an aggressive move. Brown has mentioned needing a left-handed bat, and while rotation depth could be a possibility, let's find them a lefty hitter.
The Red Sox are teetering in no-man's land. Well, that's giving them a little benefit of the doubt. They are 13 games behind the Rays and in last place in the AL East, so realistically they're just playing for a wild-card series -- a best-of-three, anything can happen, flip a coin, chase down Secretariat in the Belmont Stakes kind of playoff scenario. It's not the greatest of odds. Verdugo has another season to go until free agency, but Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom should still be in an "improve the organizational depth from 1 to 60" kind of mode, even if not going all-in is deemed unacceptable by the Fenway Faithful. Verdugo hits for average, he gets on base and he doesn't strike out much. He would be a nice fit as a leadoff hitter for Houston -- although other teams might have better prospects to offer Boston than Houston does.
Boston Red Sox: Trade James Paxton
Another reason the Red Sox should be in sell mode: Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Corey Kluber are all on the IL. They're in the bottom third of the majors in rotation ERA. Paxton, however, has now made eight starts after missing most of two seasons and pitched very well: 42⅔ IP, 32 H, 11 BB, 54 SO, 3.19 ERA. He's averaged 95.6 mph with his four-seamer, the hardest he has thrown since 2016. He's heading to free agency and looks like one of the few starters available who you might be comfortable giving the ball to in a three-game playoff series. Let's find him a home ...
Cincinnati Reds: Acquire James Paxton
The Elly De La Cruz Era has begun with a rush of exhilarating highlights and dramatic wins. As fun as the offense has been, the rotation remains a mess, although rookie Andrew Abbott has come up to provide a big lift. The Reds are overflowing with infield options: De La Cruz and Matt McLain have been outstanding since their call-ups; Jonathan India has bounced back and played every game; and Spencer Steer is now playing some first base and even left field. In the minors, they have first/third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who has a 1.043 OPS at Triple-A, plus Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo and Cam Collier. Heck, they could trade for two starting pitchers, but they also should be careful and realistic about how good of a team this really is right now.
Tampa Bay Rays: Acquire Marcus Stroman
Chicago Cubs: Keep Marcus Stroman
Now we're getting to the stage where several teams still need pitching help and we're running out of obvious pitchers to trade. Stroman might be the NL Cy Young favorite right now and he can opt out of his contract at the end of the season -- something he'll surely do given his performance not just this season (9-5, 2.47 ERA, 5 HR in 102 IP), but over the past three seasons (3.05 ERA). He could be looking at a $100 million deal.
Here's an important characteristic to remember about the trade deadline: The best teams are more likely to swing big like the Astros did in 2017 and 2019. A front office is more likely to pony up if it's the final piece of the puzzle to put their team over the top as opposed to merely a piece that might help the team merely reach the postseason. The Rays' offense returned to Earth in June, but I still look at the rotation with some concern. Taj Bradley has been figured out a little bit of late and while they're hoping Drew Rasmussen makes it back in the second half, you never know. Rays relievers rank alongside the A's for most innings pitched, so they could use a starter like Stroman to save an overworked bullpen. A postseason group with Shane McClanahan, Stroman, Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin would look really strong. The Rays have the prospects to swing a major trade and two months of Stroman's $25 million salary isn't soul-crushing, even for the Rays. The only issue?
The Cubs probably shouldn't trade Stroman. They trail the Reds and Brewers, but they're arguably the best team in the division -- the only one with a positive run differential. The Reds are a fun story right now, but do they really have the pitching to hold up over 162 games? Unlikely. If you look at rotation ERAs in the NL Central, Chicago has the best and Cincinnati has the worst.
Trading Stroman is an impossible sell to the fans and clubhouse unless the Cubs collapse before the deadline. So if they keep Stroman, what could they do? They could look to upgrade first base, DH or third base (in which they rank in the bottom third of the majors in OPS at all three) -- although the options look pretty limited at those positions.
New York Mets: Keep Max Scherzer
Texas Rangers: Acquire Max Scherzer
OK, we have to discuss the Mets, who are still flailing. Owner Steve Cohen met with the media on Wednesday, saying: "I'm preparing my management team for all possibilities. If they don't get better, we have decisions to make at the trade deadline. That's not my preferred end result. We're preparing all contingencies."
Sounds like an owner who might be willing to trade a couple of aces who haven't pitched like aces if things don't turn around -- and the Mets have shown no signs of being able to do that. Scherzer has a full no-trade clause but could potentially waive it to go to a strong contender. The problem? He's making $43.3 million this year and $43.3 million next year, so the Mets would likely have to eat some portion of that to get any kind of talent return.
Enter the Rangers. Jacob deGrom is out for the season. Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Dane Dunning have been good while Martin Perez and Andrew Heaney have been OK. There is a lot of injury history in that group and Perez and Dunning don't strike out many guys, while Heaney and Perez have gopherball tendencies. The Rangers could use some rotation insurance and might even be willing to take on some of that salary given their powerful lineup and World Series aspirations.
Cleveland Guardians: Keep Shane Bieber
San Francisco Giants: Acquire Shane Bieber
Bieber has another year of team control remaining and will be a popular name in trade rumors given the way the Guardians tend to operate. Despite their sub-.500 record, however, they're neck-and-neck with the Twins in the decidedly non-epic AL Central race, so that makes a trade less likely. More importantly, Bieber would no longer bring an ace's ransom given his regression in strikeout rate:
2020: 41.1%
2021: 33.1%
2022: 25.0%
2023: 18.5% (before Wednesday's start)
He's still a quality starter, but maybe Cleveland decides to deal him while he still has good value.
Meanwhile, it's starting to resemble 2021 in San Francisco, at least on the offensive side of things, and that's without much help from Mitch Haniger, who is currently on the 60-day IL. Manager Gabe Kapler is piecing together the rotation, however, with 10-year-old Elmer's glue and Scotch tape leftover from Christmas 2005. They've resorted to using Ryan Walker as an opener and John Brebbia before that. Alex Cobb also landed on the IL with an oblique strain about 10 days ago. Top prospect Kyle Harrison is a nonfactor at the moment as he has walked 39 in 49 innings in Triple-A while averaging barely three innings a start. So they need a starter.
Los Angeles Angels: Acquire Jack Flaherty
The Angels have cycled through eight different starting first basemen with new acquisition Mike Moustakas now getting the opportunity. They traded for Eduardo Escobar to replace the out-for-the-season Gio Urshela. So, let's add a starting pitcher to a rotation that ranks in the bottom half in the majors in ERA -- not horrible, but not exactly World Series-caliber.
Los Angeles could be in the running for some of the top trade candidates, but a weak farm system will make it difficult to be high bidders. The Angels could roll the dice on Harvard-Westlake High School grad Flaherty, who has been maddeningly inconsistent for St. Louis. He was wild early (13 walks his first two starts), allowed 10 runs on May 4, posted a 2.06 ERA over six starts, then allowed six runs in back-to-back outings. Still, he could be an interesting roll of the dice.
Atlanta Braves: Acquire Jordan Montgomery
The Braves don't have any glaring holes, but since we're trading away all the Cardinals' players, this one makes sense until the Braves get more clarification on their rotation. Max Fried and Kyle Wright haven't pitched since early on and Mike Soroka struggled in two starts, so that leaves rookies Jared Shuster and AJ Smith-Shawver to fill out the rotation behind Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton. The Braves won the World Series in 2021 by scraping together a rotation in October, but as good as they are, they don't want to be scrambling come postseason time. If Fried and Wright don't get healthy, they should deal for a veteran starter.
Toronto Blue Jays: Acquire Aroldis Chapman
The Jays don't have any glaring weaknesses other than the fifth spot in the rotation because of Alek Manoah's implosion, but they could use another reliever. Chapman is back to striking out a ton of batters -- 51 in 28⅓ innings, although he has walked 20 batters -- as his four-seam fastball is averaging 99.4 (and his sinker, which he doesn't throw as often, is at 101.4). They could certainly be in the market for a starting pitcher, but more than anything they need the offense to step up and carry a bigger load. They're in the top half of the AL runs, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Daulton Varsho are all capable of better second halves.
Minnesota Twins: Acquire Tommy Pham or another TBD outfielder
The AL Central feels like the Twins' division to lose, and they seem to be trying their hardest to lose it. Following Wednesday's 3-0 loss to the Braves, the players held a closed-door meeting as manager Rocco Baldelli expressed his disappointment in the team's play to reporters.
They're struggling to score runs, especially their outfielders. That group ranks among the worst in the majors in OPS, alongside the Guardians and Royals. (Insert AL Central joke here.) They seem intent on keeping Byron Buxton at DH, although he's not hitting much either, so that keeps Michael Taylor in center field. Joey Gallo is back from the IL so maybe that leaves Max Kepler as the guy to upgrade. They've even tried Willi Castro and his career sub-100 OPS+ out there. They could go after one of the Cardinals guys -- Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson -- or Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez. Hmm, maybe they just add a reliever.
Milwaukee Brewers: Acquire Eloy Jimenez
The Brewers are among the lowest in OPS at first base and DH (they've started 10 different players there, who have a combined sub-.200 batting average). In theory these should be the easiest positions to upgrade, but the sport is awash in bad-hitting first basemen and DHs these days. Still, they have to do better at DH, as the revolving-door approach is crushing them.
Let's get creative. If the White Sox decide to go full-scale dump, how about Jimenez? He's not having his best season and has missed time again with injuries, but he does own a career OPS+ that hovers around 120 and his contract doesn't break the bank for the Brewers ($13 million next season with club options of $16.5 and $18.5 million). How about one of the young Brewers outfielders for Jimenez?
San Diego Padres: Keep everyone
I'm not sure the Padres have any room -- or intestinal fortitude -- to add even more payroll, but they're all-in with this group. Nothing to do but ride it out and hope for a big second half.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Keep Andrew McCutchen
It was fun when the Pirates surged at the end of April, and they actually were still in first place as late as June 15 until a 10-game losing streak exposed their offensive deficiencies (last in the NL in runs). We had them trading Hill earlier and while trading McCutchen would be an unpopular decision given his return to Pittsburgh, he has real trade value with an OBP near .400.
I don't think the Pirates will trade him, especially given McCutchen's comments in May to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "As long as things continue to be the way that they are, I'm going to keep going. I want to do it here. I don't want to do it anywhere else. I don't want to continue my career on another team." Still, it's a cold, hard business and teams needing a DH should have interest.
Kansas City Royals: Keep Salvador Perez
There seems to be zero momentum for any kind of Perez deal -- in part because he's so beloved in Kansas City and in part because he has 10-and-5 veto rights on any trade. His poor framing metrics probably make him more of a DH than a catcher, on a good team anyway, but several contenders could still use a DH, although he's a little one-dimensional thanks to a sub-.300 OBP. If any trade does happen, it will be because Perez sees a lot of losing seasons ahead and decides it's time to move on.
Seattle Mariners: Acquire random veteran hitter who probably won't contribute
The Mariners are too mediocre and have too many teams to jump over to go for an impact move -- unless they soon roll out another 14-game winning streak like last season -- but they're also too invested in the present to trade away anything of importance. In the words of catcher Cal Raleigh this week: "We're not a good baseball team right now." They're not going to blow up the rotation for a hitter, but if they continue to fade, the one trade possibility is upcoming free agent Hernandez, who would provide a nice lefty-crushing outfielder for a contender.
Colorado Rockies: Trade Jurickson Profar
Hey, the Rockies already made a deal, sending Moustakas to the Angels. They've been criticized in the past for not making trades -- most notably not trading Trevor Story in 2021 when they were out of it and it was clear he wasn't going to re-sign with Colorado -- so I wouldn't necessarily expect them to do anything. Outfielders Profar and Randal Grichuk are both free agents, so they make sense, although both are merely fourth outfielders on a good team.
Oakland Athletics: Trade Jace Peterson or Tony Kemp
There isn't much here to trade. Everyone is either young or not hitting. Ramon Laureano is out with a fractured left hand. Peterson or Kemp or even Aledmys Diaz could have interest to somebody looking for a veteran utility player.