It's time for one of my favorite annual offseason features. I've taken a close look at the playmakers for each of the NFL's 32 teams and ranked them, worst to first, for what they could do in the 2023 campaign, all else being equal.
I say "could" and not "will," of course, because this is a thought exercise. I'm not trying to project which team will have the best offense this season. Instead, I'm trying to separate out a team's playmakers -- its running backs, wide receivers and tight ends exclusively -- to estimate how they would perform outside of their current offense. In other words, if we gave every team an average quarterback, offensive line and playcaller and had them play at an average pace, which would have the league's best offense?
This is a long article, so I won't belabor the point. What I do need to do before we start, though, is go through the rules I used as I formulated these rankings:
This is only about on-field performance for the 2023 season. While I might bring up contractual information or where a player was drafted, the only factors that matter are how we would project a player to perform this season alongside his current teammates. There aren't any concerns about how much it costs to acquire that player or how he'll do in 2024 and beyond.
Obviously, I'll use players' recent performance to help gauge how they would do independent of their surroundings, but it's an inexact science. It's also difficult to do for those rookie draft picks who haven't yet played an NFL snap, so I'm leaning more on pre-draft projections and the round in which a player landed to estimate how they'll do in 2023.
Injury history and suspensions matter. While it's impossible to reliably project an individual player's chances of getting injured in a 17-game season, it seems reasonable enough to use a player's history as a gauge of their potential availability in 2023. I'm not writing anybody off altogether, but it's only realistic to project Michael Thomas to miss more time than Travis Kelce.
For players who are healing from injuries that are expected to impact them heading into the season -- such as Breece Hall or Zach Ertz -- I've tried to factor in reports about when they're expected to return and some element of ramp-up time into my estimates. I've also docked players who are suspended -- Jameson Williams is a notable example -- and made smaller adjustments for players who might face disciplinary action. Given that we don't have any concrete information on who might or might not hold out during training camp, I'm treating all holdout candidates as likely to show up for camp and play.
Wide receivers are weighted more heavily than running backs or tight ends. This one is key. The top of the running back market on extensions of three years or more is Christian McCaffrey, who makes $16 million per year. At tight end, it's Darren Waller, whose extension with the Raiders was worth $17 million per year.
Both figures are less than what Christian Kirk is averaging on his deal. Sixteen wide receivers make more than $17 million per year, and while there's some fuzzy math at the end of his contract, Tyreek Hill is at $30 million per year.
Wide receivers are valued accordingly as a result in this piece, where the most valuable playmakers are guys such as Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. I bumped up superstars such as Kelce and Nick Chubb a bit, but there's a handful of wide receivers valued before any running back or tight end. As a result, you'll find that teams that have a superstar receiver (or two) rank ahead of teams that have great running backs or tight ends but lack top-tier wideouts.
The focus is on elite players and a team's top five contributors. While I considered hundreds of players, this article already is going to be long enough without mentioning every backup running back, fourth wide receiver and second tight end. Most teams can find competent players to fill in their roster, but it's harder to find superstars who can win you games on their own. Those players are valued accordingly.
While in general I focused my rankings by considering the top five contributors for each team, where the rankings were close I usually broke ties by considering depth and what a team has in the sixth through eighth spots.
Efficiency matters. I've done my best to try to normalize differences between what players can do and how their team played, which aren't always the same thing. Pace is one key factor. Consider that the Vikings ran a league-high 1,118 plays last season, while the Bengals ranked 31st with 996. At Cincinnati's pace, that would be like the Vikings getting to play nearly four extra games to rack up numbers. That's a product of how Cincinnati's coaches choose to play and the disaster that was Minnesota's defense in 2022, not player skill.
As a result, you'll see a lot of metrics that use averages as opposed to cumulative performance. Two that come up often for receivers are yards per route and target share. Yards per route is the average number of yards a receiver gained when he ran an eligible route, regardless of whether he caught the ball or was even targeted on the play. Target share is the percentage of the time a pass-catcher was targeted when he ran a route. Neither stat is perfect, but each will help us get a sense of whether a receiver was able to create opportunities when he was on the field.
With that all out of the way, let's get to the rankings. If you've read along the past couple of years, you've noticed a team consistently finish at the bottom of the charts. Well, if you were looking for something new at No. 32, you're going to be disappointed ...
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
32. Houston Texans
Sadly, it's another year at the bottom for the Texans. There are positives, no doubt. Dameon Pierce looked like a powerful starting-caliber running back a year ago before suffering an ankle injury. Tight end Dalton Schultz, inked on a one-year deal in free agency, looked like his old self in Dallas down the stretch after he recovered from an October injury; he's a major upgrade at a position Houston has struggled to fill since Owen Daniels left a decade ago. General manager Nick Caserio's philosophy means the team has competent second- and third-string options in Devin Singletary, Mike Boone and Noah Brown.
At the same time, the Texans ranked 32nd last year and then traded their only wide receiver of any relevance, Brandin Cooks, to the Cowboys. He'll be replaced in the starting lineup by Robert Woods, who didn't show much after the catch with the Titans last season after he tore an ACL with the Rams in November 2021. At 31, Woods might be here for his professionalism and run blocking as much as for his ability as a receiver.
The hope will yet again be for the young guys to break through. Nico Collins has averaged just under 39 receiving yards per game the past two seasons, despite playing a majority of the snaps in his appearances. Quarterback play hasn't helped, but he has one game over 70 receiving yards. Third-round rookie Tank Dell, meanwhile, will need to prove his 5-foot-8 frame can take regular offensive snaps at the highest level. Dell's primary role in 2023 likely will be on punt returns.
The most important player might be John Metchie III, who missed all of his rookie season after being diagnosed with leukemia. The Texans sent three picks to the Browns to move up for Metchie in the second round of the 2022 draft, suggesting that Caserio saw him as a future starting wide receiver. Metchie returned to the team this offseason, only to suffer a hamstring injury. Everybody (myself included) is rooting for the 22-year-old to make a full comeback and contribute, but it's also fair to expect him to require time as he ramps back up to the rigors of football.
31. Carolina Panthers
It has been a steady drop down the rankings for the Panthers, who approach the bottom of these rankings after looking like a top-10 unit as recently as two seasons ago. That team had Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore and Robbie Chosen all expected to play at a high level. Chosen declined rapidly, while McCaffrey and Moore have been traded over the past 12 months to land draft picks.
The Moore deal helped nab Carolina's quarterback of the future in Bryce Young, but will he have much to work with in Year 1? Adam Thielen, nominally the No. 1 receiver, is 32 and coming off a season in which he averaged 1.09 yards per route run, which ranked 83rd out of 97 qualifying wideouts. DJ Chark has upside and hit several big plays during a hot stretch in December with the Lions, but the oft-injured wideout just underwent ankle surgery. Rookie second-round pick Jonathan Mingo might end up being Carolina's top wideout by default as the season goes along, while fellow former second-rounders Terrace Marshall and Laviska Shenault aren't much more than post-hype sleepers at this point.
I'm more optimistic about the additions of Miles Sanders at running back and Hayden Hurst at tight end, but each benefited from being in great offenses a year ago, with Sanders in Philadelphia and Hurst in Cincinnati. With some cap constraints and a barren depth chart after the Moore and McCaffrey trades, new coach Frank Reich & Co. had to fill the roster with viable players to give Young a chance. It's tough to buy that Carolina won't be back in the market for more significant help again next March.
30. Arizona Cardinals
You can call it tanking. I might suggest the Cardinals are in "sim to end of season" mode before we even hit July. Either way, this Arizona offseason has been about shedding expensive players, trying to build infrastructure on both sides of the ball at the line of scrimmage and acquiring future draft picks. DeAndre Hopkins was cut after the Cardinals failed to find a trade partner willing to pick up the veteran wideout's salary, while tight end Zach Ertz is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL suffered in December and had already slowed down significantly after turning 30.
There are still talented players left, but there's little depth behind them and questions about whether they'll be on the roster for the entire season. The Cardinals might try to shop Marquise Brown, who was on pace for a 122-catch, 1,374-yard, eight-touchdown season through six weeks in 2022 before suffering a foot injury and losing the primary spot in the receiving corps to Hopkins. Running back James Conner was actually more efficient on a snap-by-snap basis last season than he was in 2021, but his touchdown performance and catch rate both regressed toward the mean, so few noticed. Both could be trade candidates at the Oct. 31 deadline.
The best news for the Cardinals would be to see their young players develop. Rondale Moore, who came into the NFL as a 93rd-percentile athlete per NFL Next Gen Stats, spent most of his first two seasons standing near the line of scrimmage for former coach Kliff Kingsbury. He has run a total of 31 deep routes, just one fewer than A.J. Green over that same stretch.
Rookie third-rounder Michael Wilson and surprisingly effective slot receiver Greg Dortch should also see reps, while tight end Trey McBride will hope to make the second-year leap with added playing time from Ertz's injury. This isn't going to be a fun season for Arizona, but if one of these guys can turn into a no-doubt starter for the next few seasons, it would qualify as progress.
29. Tennessee Titans
Is any team thinner at the skill position spots than Tennessee? Its second-best wide receiver is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who ranked 87th out of 97 wideouts in yards per route run a year ago. The Titans' third wideout is Kyle Philips, a fifth-round pick who had eight catches last season. Their second tight end is Trevon Wesco or fifth-round rookie Josh Whyle, and their primary backup at running back is rookie Tyjae Spears, who is 5-foot-9 and reportedly might be missing an ACL in one of his knees. These guys are all going to need to play, in some cases regularly, in 2023.
That would be fine, maybe, if the Titans had prime Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Corey Davis as their big three. We're not there. Henry stayed healthy last season but continued to shed efficiency; after generating 685 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) between 2019 and 2020, he has mustered only 114 over the past two seasons combined. He also fumbled six times. Henry set career highs as a receiver, which helps his case, but it's more likely 2023 reveals the good player from 2021 and 2022 as opposed to the Offensive Player of the Year candidate from the prior two campaigns, just given his career path, workload and age (29).
The receiving game will almost entirely belong to a pair of second-year players. Treylon Burks was unfairly forced to play in the shadow of the Brown trade and ran just 242 routes all season because of injuries, but the first-round pick did average 1.83 yards per route run. That's roughly in line with what Christian Kirk did for the Jags, but in addition to playing with a much better quarterback, Kirk ran 350 more routes than his divisional counterpart. The Titans have no choice but to turn the lead wideout role over to Burks.
The most pleasant surprise for the Titans amid a disappointing 2022 season was the emergence of rookie fourth-round pick Chigoziem Okonkwo, whose 450 receiving yards nearly led the team. (Robert Woods got there with 527 yards.) Okonkwo averaged 14.1 yards per reception in a season in which he seemed to break free for one big play every week, and there's still more meat on the bone for a tight end who played 378 snaps. In a perfect situation, Burks and Okonkwo would be secondary and tertiary players primed for breakouts behind established stars. Here, they're the passing game's only hope.
28. Green Bay Packers
This might be the least-experienced passing attack in modern league history. Jordan Love isn't factored into the equation of these rankings, but a quarterback room with a combined 83 career pass attempts (all by Love) will be throwing to a group almost entirely comprised of rookies and second-year receivers. The most experienced wide receiver or tight end on this depth chart is Josiah Deguara, who will be entering his fourth NFL season. Compared to the other receivers here in terms of experience, Deguara might as well be Marcedes Lewis.
According to Mike Clay's season-long projections and the age data from Pro Football Reference, the average Green Bay target for a wide receiver or tight end projects to go to a player who is 23.4 years old. That would see the team field the second-youngest corps of wide receivers and tight ends going back through 1990, behind only the 2017 Browns, who went 0-16. The Packers aren't trying to tank, but they'll be rolling out an even less experienced quarterback group to throw to those receivers than the Browns had in 2017.
There are reasons to be optimistic, but everyone is a work in progress. Rookie Christian Watson emerged as a potential No. 1 wideout over the second half of the season, as his final eight contests prorate to a 66-catch, 1,111-yard, 15-touchdown pace over a full 17-game season. The only wideouts who averaged more yards per route run from Week 10 on were Davante Adams and Jerry Jeudy. Watson dropped four of his 66 targets, including that infamous would-be touchdown in Week 1, but there's an exciting big-game hunter here.
Stephen A. Smith strongly disagrees with Romeo Doubs saying Jordan Love can do the "same exact thing" as Aaron Rodgers.
Fellow rookie Romeo Doubs was ahead of Watson for the first few months of the season, but his half-season to begin the year wasn't as impressive. He then suffered an injury on his first snap against the Lions in Week 9, was sidelined for nearly five full games and didn't regain his role in the starting lineup upon returning. He'll be forced back in after the departures of Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. The Packers will otherwise rely on a trio of rookies in slot receiver Jayden Reed and tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. Rookie tight ends often struggle to make an immediate impact.
The saving grace for the Packers in previous years might have been their running back rotation, but they underwhelmed last season. Aaron Jones averaged 5.3 yards per carry, but the veteran fumbled five times on 272 touches, leading the team to push through a pay cut. AJ Dillon's yards per carry and yards per catch dropped for the second consecutive season, and he generated minus-35 rushing yards over expected to Jones' 88. The hope was that Dillon might turn into Derrick Henry as a pro -- and the Titans star didn't break out until the second half of his third season -- but Dillon took a step backwards a year ago. A Packers team hoping to take the pressure off Love will need the former second-round pick to have a breakout season in 2023.
27. New York Giants
How far can running back Saquon Barkley carry the Giants? He approached his 2018 rookie form and excelled last season, generating 114 rushing yards over expected behind an inconsistent offensive line. If this version of Barkley sticks around, the team will be thrilled, but counting on the former No. 2 overall pick to stay healthy for the second consecutive season is difficult. In between healthy campaigns in 2018 and 2022, he missed 21 games and was forced out of three others with various injuries. Matt Breida would be the first man up if Barkley missed time.
More concerningly, the Giants went into the offseason knowing they needed to add playmakers for newly expensive quarterback Daniel Jones and didn't come away with a single sure thing. The biggest name is tight end Darren Waller, who turns 31 in September and was limited to 388 receiving yards because of injuries a year ago. After averaging 958 offensive snaps per season in his breakout stretch between 2019 and 2020, he has played a combined 954 offensive snaps over his ensuing two campaigns. He also dropped off from averaging 2.44 yards per route run during the 2019-20 season to 1.76 over the past two campaigns. Waller was worth the risk at the price the Giants paid -- a third-round pick in a trade -- but he's hardly a sure thing.
Jones needs Waller to be one, because the depth chart at wide receiver is uninspiring. General manager Joe Schoen added plenty of depth to a group that was evolving throughout 2022, but he's trying to make a dollar out of three dimes and four nickels. The team brought back Isaiah Hodgins, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton; Shepard tore an ACL in September, while Slayton was pushed into the lineup only out of necessity. Slayton, probably best served as a downfield threat in the third or fourth spot in the lineup, might nominally be New York's top wideout.
Wan'Dale Robinson, drafted in the second round last year, might not be able to break camp with the team after his own ACL injury. The Giants used a third-round pick on Jalin Hyatt, but he was running with the third-string offense during the offseason program and might not be ready to make a more significant impact until 2024.
It might be telling that the receiver getting the most hype at OTAs was former Colts second-rounder Parris Campbell, who missed 34 games over his first three seasons before averaging 9.9 yards per catch for Indianapolis a year ago. Coach Brian Daboll has earned the benefit of the doubt after an impressive debut season in New York -- he won games with Hodgins, David Sills and Richie James at wide receiver last season. Unless Daboll can guarantee that Barkley, Campbell and Waller are healthy all season and live up to their potential, though, this team seems doomed to rely on replacement-level receivers far too often.
26. New England Patriots
Coach Bill Belichick attempted to give quarterback Mac Jones and his offense a shot in the arm in 2021 by going on a free agent spending spree. The Patriots added Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith at tight end and Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor at wide receiver. Two years later, Smith and Agholor are gone, while Bourne might be competing for a roster spot against DeVante Parker in training camp.
In come two new free agents. JuJu Smith-Schuster isn't likely to ever live up to that 1,426-yard season from 2018, but the former Steelers and Chiefs wideout can be a tough pass-catcher over the middle of the field. He ranked fifth in the league in yards after catch over expected (YACOE) among wide receivers last season, trailing superstars Jaylen Waddle, A.J. Brown, Ja'Marr Chase and Deebo Samuel. Mike Gesicki, a "tight end" in the same way Joe Judge and Matt Patricia were "offensive coaches" last year, should see more snaps in the slot and serve as a useful red zone player.
The homegrown players, as always, are who Belichick needs to thrive. Rhamondre Stevenson has grown into one of the NFL's most efficient running backs, with fumbles as his only real sticking point. With Damien Harris moving on and James Robinson already off the roster before Independence Day, Stevenson has a clear path to his largest workload as a pro. If he can sustain that efficiency and Tyquan Thornton can emerge as the deep threat this team has needed since their yearlong dalliance with Brandin Cooks in 2017, the Patriots should be back on the rise.
25. Indianapolis Colts
Just about everybody involved with the Colts would like to write off 2022 as a bad dream, and it's easy to understand why. Beyond the disasters they endured at quarterback and with their coaching staff, the players they relied upon as building blocks either took a step backward or weren't around. Offensive linemen Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly had their worst NFL seasons. Linebacker Shaq Leonard was limited to 74 defensive snaps because of back surgery and a concussion.
The wasted year extended to skill position talent. Running back Jonathan Taylor, coming off an All-Pro season, missed six games and most of a seventh with ankle injuries. His underlying numbers were still impressive, as he generated 0.7 rushing yards over expected per carry behind a disappointing line, but he dropped from 20 touchdowns in 2021 to four. He'll regress back toward the mean in terms of scoring this season.
Likewise, receiver Michael Pittman Jr.'s breakout 2021 season was followed by a frustrating junior campaign. He caught a career-high 99 passes but averaged 9.3 yards per reception. If you catch 75 or more passes but fail to average 10 yards, you're usually either a running back, an exclusive slot receiver, very old or some combination of those three. Pittman averaged just 1.4 yards per route run lining up outside a year ago, down from 2.2 the prior season. The quarterback play was partly to blame, but Pittman has to do better with his chances this season.
If those guys return to their 2021 form, things will be fine in Indianapolis. Hoping that happens is fine, but counting on it is dangerous, and the Colts are going to struggle mightily if that plan doesn't work out. Rookie wideout Alec Pierce caught just over 53% of the passes in his direction and averaged 1.3 yards per route run, while receiver Ashton Dulin failed to live up to preseason hype. Tight end Jelani Woods flashed during his rookie season, but the third-rounder also had one game with more than 45 receiving yards. The only significant addition to the depth chart is another fellow third-round pick in wideout Josh Downs, who will take over Parris Campbell's role in the slot.
The Colts are young, and they'll be better coached on offense in 2023 than they were over the final two months of 2022, but there's no guarantee the players they need to get back on track will be stars again.
24. Denver Broncos
The playmaker revolution we've been waiting for with the Broncos still hasn't taken place. Injuries have been the key culprit. In 2020, wideout Courtland Sutton went down in Week 1. The following year, receiver Jerry Jeudy was limited to 412 snaps by a high ankle sprain. In 2022, wideout Tim Patrick and running back Javonte Williams were sidelined by torn ACLs before the end of September.
Receiver KJ Hamler, a second-round pick in 2020, has played just 23 games in three seasons, but even if we leave him aside, that four-man unit of Jeudy, Sutton, Patrick and Williams have been on the field together for just 164 of Denver's 2,114 snaps on offense over the past two seasons, which comes in below 8%. What happened last season with quarterback Russell Wilson and coach Nathaniel Hackett didn't help, but we just haven't seen these guys play together often.
Of course, now everybody is a couple of years older. Jeudy was incredibly efficient by yards per route run last season, but he missed most or all of five games after sitting out seven with the ankle injury in 2021. Sutton's explosiveness since returning from a torn ACL hasn't quite been there; he had 10 gains of 40 yards or more in the two years before the injury and just three over the two seasons afterward. Williams is a question for training camp as he recovers from the knee injury.
Damien Woody explains how Sean Payton can help Russell Wilson improve this coming season.
Can coach Sean Payton's new additions help stem the tide? The team traded up in the second round for wideout Marvin Mims, who will need his speed to overcome a 5-foot-10 frame. Samaje Perine was a useful reserve running back for the Bengals behind Joe Mixon, but he wasn't trusted in a primary role. Will Payton try to turn the 27-year-old into his new version of Alvin Kamara? I'm intrigued to see what happens in Year 2 for tight end Greg Dulcich, who racked up 411 yards in 10 games as a rookie in what wasn't exactly a thriving offense.
Still, it also feels like a trade from this relative position of strength for some much-needed draft capital is inevitable. Then again, given how many injuries this group of playmakers has endured over the past couple of seasons, holding on to everyone might make more sense.
23. Los Angeles Rams
You might have heard: Things didn't go all that well for the Rams in 2022! Wide receiver Cooper Kupp took a step backward from his spectacular 2021 campaign before being sidelined by a high ankle sprain. Allen Robinson's season in Los Angeles was a spectacular failure, as the wideout had just 339 yards across 10 games and ranked 90th out of 97 qualifying receivers in yards per route run. The Rams paid $10 million of his $15 million salary in 2023 to ship him to the Steelers. Van Jefferson missed the first six weeks of the season and didn't top 50 receiving yards in a game until January.
Unless you're a football nerd (like me) who really loved Ben Skowronek's transition from wide receiver to part-time fullback, the lone positive for the Rams didn't come until the final three weeks of the season, when running back Cam Akers put together his best stretch as a pro. Playing behind a patchwork offensive line, the former second-round pick carried the ball 63 times for 345 yards and three scores. Late-season streaks aren't always predicative -- Tyler Higbee's dominant five-game stretch to end 2019 didn't carry over afterward -- but it was a much-needed sign of life for a player who had struggled since tearing an Achilles before the 2021 campaign.
As is the case for the vast majority of their roster in a reset season, the Rams haven't added much to what they had a year ago. Wideout Demarcus Robinson, signed earlier this month after a season in Baltimore, might be their most significant free agent addition at any position on the roster. Barring a breakthrough from Tutu Atwell, Lance McCutcheon or rookie fifth-rounder Puka Nacua, L.A. will be almost entirely reliant on Kupp, who just turned 30 two weeks ago.
22. New York Jets
For the Jets, it's all about the class of 2022. Garrett Wilson won Offensive Rookie of the Year and produced upper-echelon wideout numbers with replacement-level quarterback play. His 1.92 yards per route run were in line with DK Metcalf and DJ Moore a year ago. Drops were a concern -- Wilson put five balls on the ground -- but he's already a No. 1 receiver with the potential to be a superstar.
Things begin to get dicier from there. Breece Hall was averaging nearly 6.0 yards per carry to start his career when he tore an ACL in October. There are questions about whether he will be ready for the start of training camp. While Hall's long-term outlook is still exciting, there are plenty of backs who need a full season to get back to their old selves after an ACL injury. Michael Carter and rookie fifth-round pick Israel Abanikanda would have to pick up the pieces if Hall misses time.
Liz Loza discusses why she has the Jets' Aaron Rodgers outside of her top 12 best available quarterbacks in fantasy.
The organization traded wide receiver Elijah Moore, cut Braxton Berrios after the season and cleared a path in the process for two certified friends of Aaron Rodgers. I'm not sure those were positive moves. Wideouts Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb afford Rodgers some level of familiarity within the offense, but they weren't helping the Packers last season. Rodgers posted a 62.2 QBR when Cobb and Lazard were on the sideline, but when one or both of those wideouts were on the field, his QBR dropped by 23 points (39.2). In other words, with those guys off the field, Rodgers was the fifth-best quarterback in football. With one or both involved, he ranked 26th.
I'm not sure there's a ton behind them on the wide receiver depth chart, either. Mecole Hardman has his role as a useful gadget player, but he was never able to turn into much more in Kansas City. Corey Davis has just narrowly topped his 2020 totals (65 receptions for 984 yards and five scores) across two combined seasons with the Jets (66 receptions for 1,028 yards and six scores) and might be a cap casualty before the season once the team restructures Rodgers' deal. Denzel Mims, a second-round pick by general manager Joe Douglas in 2020, is facing a challenge to make the Week 1 roster.
Tyler Conklin played ahead of C.J. Uzomah a year ago, as the former Bengals tight end missed two games and finished with only 232 receiving yards. Whether it's Conklin, Lazard or somebody else, the Jets desperately need a second receiver to step up behind Wilson.
21. Washington Commanders
Where would Terry McLaurin rank among NFL wide receivers with even average quarterback play? His degree of difficulty seems to rise with each passing season, as he'll jump from Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke last season to a 2023 room likely to be led by 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell. This is approaching Allen Robinson and Andre Johnson territory:
Just thinking about Terry McLaurin averaging nearly 1,100 receiving yards per season with this group of quarterbacks pic.twitter.com/1xKiBB7MNH
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) June 20, 2023
I believe McLaurin is a top-10 receiver, and he should get more help with a leap from Jahan Dotson. Last year's first-round pick flashed early in the season before being sidelined for five weeks by an hamstring injury. When Dotson was restored into a more regular role over the final month of the season, he produced a line that would prorate over a 17-game season to 71 catches for 1,170 yards and 10 touchdowns. He averaged 2.6 yards per route run over that five-game stretch, which ranked seventh in the league. If he can even approach that sort of efficiency over a full season, the Commanders would have one of the best wideout duos in football.
Outside of those players, there's not much to love in Washington. Curtis Samuel was healthy a year ago, but his gadget style of play has made him one of the league's least efficient receivers. Dyami Brown had his role in the lineup usurped by Dotson. Tight end Logan Thomas, who turns 32 this summer, continued to struggle with injuries and had an anonymous season.
Running back is a place for possible growth, but not with Antonio Gibson, who has grown less efficient as a runner across his three NFL campaigns. The good news is Gibson's fumble woes faded into memory after he coughed the ball up six times in 2021. His best role is still likely as a third-down back, and it's possible new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy installs the college wideout in the Jerick McKinnon spot in Washington's offense. Brian Robinson will also hope to improve after a middling rookie season, although the former third-round pick has an obvious excuse after being shot in an attempted robbery just before the year began.
If Dotson or Robinson emerge as an above-average starter in 2023, the Commanders should push above the league-average mark.
20. Buffalo Bills
This is a major downgrade for the Bills, who didn't get a breakout season from any of their young playmakers last season. Gabe Davis, who was coming off a four-touchdown game against the Chiefs in the playoffs, was able to catch only 51.6% of his passes and garner targets on 17.7% of his routes. His style is always going to trade middling efficiency for big plays, but he didn't hit home runs frequently enough in 2022. He has to be something more than Buffalo's version of Marquise Valdes-Scantling in a contract year.
Dawson Knox also failed to build on his impressive step forward in 2021, as his touchdown rate regressed back to earth. A Buffalo front office that was reportedly trying to add a tight end to supplement Knox before that season finally got its man this offseason, using a first-round pick on Dalton Kincaid. I'm excited about Kincaid's long-term potential, but rookie tight ends almost always fail to live up to lofty expectations.
Neither Devin Singletary nor James Cook won the starting job at running back, while a midseason trade for Nyheim Hines delivered a total of 50 yards from scrimmage in nine games. General manager Brandon Beane wisely swapped out Singletary for power back Damien Harris this offseason, with the Bills hoping to pound light boxes as the Chiefs did with Isiah Pacheco last season. Harris struggled to stay healthy in New England, but the hope will undoubtedly be that he can contribute in a 150-carry role.
So much of how this offense goes depends on quarterback Josh Allen and receiver Stefon Diggs, and the former isn't included in this debate. This is a tier of teams with one star wide receiver and questions around that player, and it's hard to argue that the teams ahead of Buffalo in these rankings don't have better options for possible breakouts on their 2023 rosters.
19. Kansas City Chiefs
Here's the last of the teams built around one star pass-catcher, because he's the best of the bunch. Travis Kelce benefits from playing with Patrick Mahomes, but anyone who has played even casual attention to the Chiefs over the past few seasons has seen Kelce routinely get himself open and create after the catch on a weekly basis. I ranked him as the second-best tight end of all time, and after becoming the first tight end in 50 years to top 1,000 yards in his age-33 season, it doesn't look like he's slowing down.
The Chiefs also found an upgrade at running back last year in Isiah Pacheco, who gave them the power back they needed to challenge teams that tried to face them with light boxes. Jerick McKinnon also stepped up as a receiver and became an unlikely threat near the red zone, more than doubling his career totals by putting up nine receiving touchdowns. McKinnon's knees likely limit him to a change-of-pace role, but his partnership with Pacheco represents a major improvement on the limp style of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Stephen A. Smith and Marcus Spears heatedly debate the chances of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs repeating as Super Bowl champions.
So why did the Chiefs fall back from their 16th-place finish? The wide receiver depth chart is even sketchier. The nominal top wideout at the moment is Kadarius Toney, who has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps exactly once in two NFL seasons. Skyy Moore, a second-rounder last year, failed to make an impact before scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl. While the Chiefs added another second-round wideout in Rashee Rice, they lost two regulars in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman.
Of course, Mahomes will do just fine with one of the league's worst wide receiver depth charts, given that he just won MVP with a slightly better group a year ago. Outside of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, this is a young group, and there's a chance that Toney, Moore or even Justyn Ross emerges as a No. 1 receiver. As long as Kelce is Kelce, the Chiefs will be fine. If he were to decline or suffer an injury, or if they didn't have Mahomes to conduct the orchestra for any period of time, this would look like an underwhelming set of wide receivers.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Two years is an awfully long time. The 2021 version of the Buccaneers had younger versions of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and overqualified third wide receiver Antonio Brown. They went three deep at tight end with Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, and could count on a solid running back coming off a successful playoff run in Leonard Fournette. Even the guys buried on Tampa's bench -- Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller and Gio Bernard -- had plausible roles to play. The Bucs were stacked.
Now, it's Evans and Godwin and not much else. Tampa Bay imported Russell Gage from the Falcons last year, but he averaged 8.4 yards per reception while battling various injuries, most notably a scary concussion in the playoff loss to the Cowboys. Gage missed OTAs because of another issue, and there's little behind him on the depth chart. Cade Otton, forced into the starting lineup as a rookie by an injury to Brate, is the most notable of the three Day 3 selections at tight end who will take the majority of snaps at the position for Tampa Bay.
Fournette was cut after a dismal 2022 campaign, handing the job by default to Rachaad White. The 2022 third-rounder wasn't much better as a rookie, serving mostly as a safe pair of hands in the passing game. To replace the back who produced the fewest rushing yards over expected (-135) of any player in football, the Bucs signed former Broncos back Chase Edmonds, who ranked last among players with 50 carries or more in RYOE per attempt (a whopping minus-1.6 RYOE per carry). The Bucs' line wasn't good without Ryan Jensen last season, but this isn't exactly an inspiring backfield.
Can Evans and Godwin carry them? Evans made it over 1,000 yards for the ninth consecutive season, but he also turns 30 in August and needed a 207-yard explosion in Week 17 to get there. Godwin is younger (27), but the explosiveness we saw during the 2019 season hasn't really been there since. He averaged 11.1 yards per reception and 1.93 yards per route run during the Tom Brady era, virtually identical to the numbers Jakobi Meyers posted in New England over the same time frame. This offense will be different with Brady and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich leaving town, but the Bucs need the old version of Godwin to overcome what they've lost elsewhere.
17. Chicago Bears
Operation "Get Justin Fields a Top Wide Receiver" landed a legitimate No. 1 this offseason in former Carolina star DJ Moore. Moore has stayed healthy and productive, outside of a curious aversion to touchdowns, despite subpar quarterback play. He's coming off arguably his worst season as a pro, as he played virtually every snap and managed only 888 receiving yards, but he is still just 26. Moore was the best wideout the Bears could have added this offseason, and he'll be a major help for Fields in 2023.
The move pushes Darnell Mooney back into the No. 2 role, where he excelled in 2021. The cumulative numbers don't look great when you consider he dropped from 1,055 receiving yards in 2021 to 493, but that was driven by a late-season injury and the move toward an extremely run-heavy attack. Mooney still averaged 1.89 yards per route run, right in line with what Moore produced for Carolina (1.88). Moore is a better player, but Mooney should be an above-average wideout as the Bears shift toward the pass.
There's a major drop-off between the top two and everyone else at receiver. Chase Claypool caught just 14 passes after joining Chicago at the trade deadline, and while you can blame some of that on injuries, he wasn't exactly blowing people away as the third option in Pittsburgh, either. It already feels like he needs a change of scenery from what was supposed to be his change of scenery. Cole Kmet's touchdown total spiked last season (seven) from zero in 2021, but I doubt he'll keep scoring once every seven or so receptions.
The Bears beat out the Bucs because of what they offer at running back. Khalil Herbert benefited from Fields' gravity as a runner, but the second-year back generated 1.3 rushing yards over expected per carry last season, way ahead of then-teammate David Montgomery, who came in at -0.3 RYOE. General manager Ryan Poles upgraded by swapping out Montgomery for D'Onta Foreman, who has ably filled in for the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry over the past couple of seasons. Roschon Johnson's versatility should earn him a spot in the rotation as a rookie. Moore might be the only star in the mix, but the Bears are a tier ahead of the teams below them.
16. Detroit Lions
It pays to nail a fourth-round pick. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the 17th wide receiver chosen in the 2021 draft. Four of the wideouts taken ahead of him have already changed teams before their third season in the league. Players such as Tutu Atwell, Dee Eskridge and Terrace Marshall were drafted two rounds before St. Brown came off the board.
Doesn't matter now. Since December 2021, St. Brown has more catches (161) than any player in the league besides Justin Jefferson. He ranks seventh over that time frame in receiving yards and yards per route run and third in first downs. No player has drawn targets more often, and St. Brown has dropped only three of his 217 opportunities. His production places him right aside the first three wide receivers drafted in 2022 -- Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith -- even if he succeeds in a very different way.
It's good that St. Brown is a target hog, because the Lions are going to need one in 2023. Jameson Williams was expected to ascend to the starting lineup after an ACL injury limited him to one catch as a rookie, but he will be suspended for the first six weeks of the season after violating the league's gambling policy. It would hardly be a surprise if Williams, who is yet to play more than a quarter of the snaps in an NFL game, doesn't become a regular in the Lions lineup until after the Week 9 bye.
There's not much to cover for Williams. T.J. Hockenson was traded last fall, while DJ Chark left for the Panthers. Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond will be pressed into larger roles, while the Lions will hope for an immediate impact at tight end from second-round pick Sam LaPorta, who struggled with drops at Iowa and plays a position that rarely produces impact rookie campaigns. Detroit could add a veteran receiver before camp.
While talk of using running backs in the slot is overblown, the Lions might have no choice but to give first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs a meaningful role in the passing game to take some of the early-season pressure off St. Brown. Gibbs should have an immediate role in the offense and eventually take away the primary job from free agent addition David Montgomery, who was ordinary with the Bears. Gibbs is likely an upgrade on traded back D'Andre Swift, but Montgomery is a downgrade from Jamaal Williams, who was much closer to a league-average back over the past two seasons.
15. Baltimore Ravens
Welcome to the most difficult set of playmakers to rank on this list. On paper, the Ravens have a team that should comfortably be in the top 10. J.K. Dobbins has averaged just under 6 yards per carry as a pro. Rashod Bateman ranked sixth in the NFL in yards per route run over the first eight weeks of 2022. Odell Beckham Jr. was last seen putting together a 288-yard stretch over 3½ games as the Rams won the Super Bowl. Zay Flowers was a force at Boston College and might be the best wideout in the 2023 draft class. Mark Andrews has ranked in the top five among tight ends in fantasy points in each of the past four seasons.
And yet, outside of Andrews, can we count on any of those players? Dobbins missed all of 2021 and chunks of 2022 recovering from a knee injury; he has played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in a game just eight times over three seasons. Backup Gus Edwards missed all of 2021 and eight games a year ago. Beckham didn't play in 2022 while recovering from a torn ACL, while Bateman was sidelined by a Lisfranc injury and needed a cortisone shot during OTAs. This depth chart looks great on paper, but what are the chances the Ravens get anything close to full seasons from everyone involved?
Flowers looms as the potential beneficiary if the guys in front of him can't stay healthy. While college health isn't always indicative of what will happen at the pro level (see Frank Gore and Parris Campbell), Flowers had no trouble staying on the field, catching 200 passes over four seasons. Simply being available might give him the inside track to snaps when Baltimore is in two-wideout sets.
The Ravens have better depth than most at receiver. Nelson Agholor was miscast as a starter with the Patriots, but he's an above-average fourth wideout, especially if the Ravens return him to the field-stretcher role in which he excelled with the Raiders. Isaiah Likely was impressive as a receiving tight end in his rookie campaign, earning targets at the league's sixth-highest rate among those at the position with 100 or more routes. He will afford the team more flexibility in resting Andrews when new offensive coordinator Todd Monken chooses to go with a single tight end.
14. New Orleans Saints
A team that desperately needed young players on cost-controlled deals to break through landed two key successes at wide receiver a year ago. First-round pick Chris Olave was an instant hit, ranking seventh in the NFL in yards per route run and 12th in target rate with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton at quarterback. I thought Olave was better than Garrett Wilson, but Olave missing two games helped hand the Jets standout the Offensive Rookie of the Year nod. They're both stars, and Olave has top-five upside if he forms a quick connection with Derek Carr.
The Saints also found an exciting deep option in Rashid Shaheed, who entered the starting lineup in Week 13 and turned his 20 receptions into 324 yards and a touchdown. Shaheed's production is admittedly less sustainable -- he's not going to catch 87% of the passes in his direction given his style of play -- but he's going to be a useful screens-and-bombs option as a third or fourth wideout, and that's valuable for a player who will make about a million dollars per year over the next two seasons.
After that, general manager Mickey Loomis & Co. seem to be relying on touchdown regression not being a thing. Tight end Juwan Johnson had his best season, but it would be a surprise if he turned 42 catches into seven touchdowns again. The Saints also imported Jamaal Williams, whose 17 touchdowns for the Lions loom like an obvious historical outlier. Williams actually generated four fewer first downs than expected a year ago by the NFL Next Gen Stats model and 61 fewer rushing yards than an average back would have gained over his two seasons in Detroit. He's a solid No. 2 back and a great interview, but it would be a shock if he scores double-digit touchdowns this season.
Placing the Saints in these rankings depends mostly on how confident you are in their two most significant names returning to form. Michael Thomas is now three full seasons removed from his 1,725-yard campaign in 2019, with ankle issues and other injuries limiting the former Offensive Player of the Year to 609 receiving yards over that time frame. New Orleans brought back Thomas to alleviate its cap situation as much as it did for his play; even getting a full season out of him would be a pleasant surprise, let alone something close to the player we saw in years past.
Running back Alvin Kamara's situation is murkier, as the five-time Pro Bowler might be facing a suspension for his involvement in a battery case in Las Vegas. I'm playing the averages and projecting Kamara to miss a couple of games in 2023 as a result. Even if we leave the suspension aside, though, he hasn't been the same player since the departure of Drew Brees. After generating 105 rushing yards over expected on 358 carries from 2019 to 2020, he has turned 463 carries into minus-178 RYOE over the past two seasons. He has maintained most of his efficiency as a receiver, but if he's just a third-down back as opposed to a true two-way threat, the Saints will rely more on Williams and third-round pick Kendre Miller.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
After talking about touchdown regression back from lofty heights, let's talk about a player who should see the math work in his favor. Diontae Johnson scored 20 touchdowns on 254 receptions across his first three seasons. In Year 4, though, he caught 86 passes and turned exactly zero of them into touchdowns. In his first three seasons, Johnson converted 47% of his end zone targets into scores. Last season, he went 0-for-10. Even allowing for the move from Ben Roethlisberger to Kenny Pickett, I strongly doubt he goes 0-for-the-end-zone again in 2023.
There's another metric detailing Pickett and his receivers, though, that made me even more intrigued by what could happen for a Pittsburgh wideout this season. NFL Next Gen Stats uses a model to estimate a receiver's chances of catching each pass thrown in his direction. As receivers get more opportunities, those expected catch rates tend to head toward a common ground. Thirty-four receivers ran 500 routes or more last season, and 33 of them had an expected catch rate between 55% and 72%.
The significant outlier was George Pickens, whose expected catch rate was 51.4%. He responded by catching 61.9% of his passes. The list of players who have run 500 routes and posted a catch rate 10 percentage points better than expected in the Next Gen Stats era isn't long: It's Doug Baldwin, Stefon Diggs, Pierre Garcon, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett and Michael Thomas, who did it three times. Baldwin and Lockett played with prime Russell Wilson, who had model-breaking accuracy on deep throws. Thomas was with Drew Brees, who set NFL accuracy records. Pickens was playing with a rookie.
For @billbarnwell, George Pickens could be this year's fantasy breakout star ✍️ @ESPNFantasy
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) June 22, 2023
(via NFL Live) pic.twitter.com/RhZM9TPn9H
I don't think Pickens is going to keep running catch rates 10% over expectation, but he's going to have more catchable passes on the whole in 2023. Decreasing the degree of difficulty could unlock a very special season. We might be talking about Pickens like he's the best wide receiver in the 2022 class if he had better quarterback play last season. Tight end Pat Freiermuth took another step forward in 2022, although his touchdown rate also dropped precipitously.
The biggest weakness in this group, beyond wide receiver depth, is the guy the Steelers took ahead of Freiermuth in the first round of the 2021 draft. Najee Harris has averaged 3.9 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per reception through his first two seasons. Harris has stayed healthy and assumed a large workload, but among the 25 running backs with 300 or more carries over the past two seasons, Harris ranks last in yards per carry, rushing yards over expected, success rate and EPA per carry. The only back who gained fewer rushing yards over expected per carry is Alvin Kamara.
The Steelers haven't had a good offensive line the past two seasons, and that's certainly something to consider in evaluating Harris. (If a running back needs a great line to succeed, it's probably not worth drafting that running back in the first round, but that's another story for another day.) At the same time, though, Jaylen Warren posted a positive RYOE figure on 77 carries a year ago. It was only 7 yards over expectation, but his success rate and first down rate were well above Harris' performance. Harris needs to take a step forward.
12. Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb continues to be the league's best runner, and when you consider his consistency, it isn't really close. Over his five seasons, he has generated 1,312 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE). The only running back within 500 yards of that figure is Derrick Henry (1,034). If we flip it to RYOE per carry and look at those with 750 carries over that stretch, Chubb is the only back in the league to generate more than 1 RYOE per attempt. His 40 first downs over expectation across that stretch are nearly double anybody else's; Henry is at 22, Jonathan Taylor is at 13 and nobody else comes close. The Browns don't have the same depth at running back with Kareem Hunt out of the picture, but Chubb has played at a Hall of Fame level.
The Browns invested in two pass-catchers last year and came away feeling good about those options. Amari Cooper, acquired in a salary dump from the Cowboys, returned to form after leaving Dallas and finished 15th among receivers in yards per route run. David Njoku lived up to a massive contract extension and finished seventh among tight ends in the same metric, although the Browns had him run about 26 routes per game. Drops and health are always going to be concerns with Njoku, but he's a useful player.
Donovan Peoples-Jones was probably better than you think last season; he racked up 839 receiving yards and was in solid WR2 range in terms of yards per route run. He also wasn't good enough to keep Cleveland from trying to upgrade this offseason, as they traded for Elijah Moore and used a third-round pick on Cedric Tillman. Between Moore, Tillman and fellow third-round picks Anthony Schwartz and David Bell, the Browns need one of their young wideouts to break out and develop into a starter. Peoples-Jones is still only 24, but he's a free agent after the season for a team spending significant money at just about every position on offense in addition to WR2.
11. Las Vegas Raiders
The move to trade for Davante Adams last year in the hopes of reforming a college connection with quarterback Derek Carr and competing in the AFC West didn't work, but it wasn't because of Adams' play. The former Packers star didn't skip a beat, finishing third in receiving yards and sixth in yards per route run. The only wideouts who drew targets more often when they ran routes were Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London. The career paths for wide receivers after turning 30 can be precipitous, but Adams didn't show any signs of dropping off a year ago.
The second option in the offense, rather unexpectedly, turned out to be Josh Jacobs. After having his fifth-year option declined and working with backups in the Hall of Fame game, he delivered what was comprehensively his best season. Five of his nine longest runs as a Raiders player came last season, including the 86-yard walk-off in overtime to beat the Seahawks. Jacobs actually posted 1 more rushing yard over expectation as a rookie, but he more than made up for the difference by his increased role in the passing game.
Can Jacobs keep this up? It's tough to say. He's coming off his first full season as a pro, and he endured 340 carries, which is a lot in the modern NFL. We've seen players follow this sort of career path before, with Doug Martin as an obvious comparable; Martin excelled as a rookie, struggled for two seasons, had his fifth-year option declined and then broke out with a huge Year 4. He then averaged 2.9 yards per carry each of the next two seasons before being cut. Derrick Henry's late breakout might inspire Jacobs. I would expect him to be somewhere between the player who led the league in rushing yards in 2022 and the guy who looked to be on his way out of town after 2021.
That's the good news! Hunter Renfrow's breakout season from 2021 gave way to an anonymous 2022, as the slot receiver struggled to stay healthy and got lost in the shuffle in the red zone after excelling there the prior season. The Raiders signed Jakobi Meyers, who had been playing in the slot for the Patriots, so it remains to be seen how coach Josh McDaniels will use Meyers and Renfrow together when they play three-wide sets.
Tight end Darren Waller struggled to stay healthy and was traded to the Giants after the season. The Raiders responded by signing Austin Hooper and trading up in the second round for Michael Mayer, who was regarded as the most pro-ready tight end in this class. Neither player will have Waller's upside, but Las Vegas is more likely to have its starting tight end on the field in 2023.
10. Atlanta Falcons
This is a very big three. When everyone's healthy, the Falcons will roll out a top-10 pick at running back (Bijan Robinson), wide receiver (Drake London) and tight end (Kyle Pitts). No team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 has had a top-10 homegrown player at those three positions at the same time. A few have done it with imported players; the only one since 2010 is the 2014 Lions, who had Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson and Eric Ebron.
We can leave aside the quarterback situation and the cost it took to get those three players to Atlanta, so let's talk about how fun this offense can be. Robinson enjoyed glowing reviews coming out of college and was regarded as one of the best players in the 2023 draft, independent of position. Tyler Allgeier was exceptional in this offense last season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 0.7 rushing yards over expected per snap, so running back should not be an issue. The Falcons should have the league's best one-two punch at halfback if Robinson lives up to expectations.
The Falcons threw the ball 24 times per game in a league in which the average team threw more than 33 times per contest, so receiving numbers were depressed for their two standouts. Taking a closer look suggests there's the potential for big numbers there. London was targeted on a whopping 30.9% of his routes, the fourth-highest rate in football, and averaged 2.3 yards per route run. Give London the 573 routes Garrett Wilson ran for the Jets as opposed to the 379 London ran, and his numbers prorate to 109 catches for 1,309 receiving yards.
Coming off a 1,000-yard season as a rookie, Pitts was seen as a potential challenger to Travis Kelce's throne in Year 2. It didn't go as well. Pitts' catch rate dropped below 50%, and he finished with just 356 yards and two scores before suffering a season-ending knee injury. I'm still optimistic, given that he was averaging 1.8 yards per route run and commanding a target share north of 30% before the injury. The catch rate will bounce back, and if the Falcons throw more often, Pitts and London will be able to produce big numbers.
In part, that will be because there isn't much in the cupboard after them. Mack Hollins played a ton of snaps for the Raiders as their third wideout last season, but he ranked 70th in target rate and 74th in yards per route run. Jonnu Smith joins after two frustrating years with the Patriots, but he's probably best as a blocking tight end. This group is going to go as far as the big three will take it.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
Watch the Jaguars go! You can quibble with some of the prices the Jags paid in free agency last year, but they certainly got results. Tight end Evan Engram stayed healthy and posted a career high in receiving yards, even if his underlying numbers weren't out of line with what he has done in the past. Christian Kirk took to the top receiver role and averaged a respectable 1.9 yards per route run, which ranked 32nd among NFL wideouts. Zay Jones continued to struggle with drops -- his seven ranked second in the league -- but the former Raiders wideout posted much-needed spike weeks in narrow wins over the Ravens and Cowboys.
The two key contributors I haven't mentioned will make or break the Jaguars in 2023. Travis Etienne returned from a Lisfranc injury as a rookie and looked like one of the most exciting running backs in football. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and generated 234 rushing yards over expected, the second most of any back (behind Nick Chubb). Oddly enough, for a player who was expected to play a huge role as a receiver, he had only 316 receiving yards. If he can do more as a receiver and cut down on his five fumbles, he could become a top-five back this season.
Field Yates explains why Garrett Wilson will be a breakout fantasy star next season, while Daniel Dopp anticipates a successful season for Calvin Ridley.
The X factor is Calvin Ridley, who returns after missing nearly two seasons of football. Ridley left the Falcons to address his mental health in 2021 and was then suspended for the entire 2022 season after violating the league's gambling policy. In 2020, playing across from prime Julio Jones, Ridley posted superstar numbers, racking up 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns. His 2.5 yards per route run that season ranked eighth among all wideouts.
It's impossible to project what Ridley will do this season. He'll get to play with a great quarterback and an excellent offensive coordinator, which helps. He established that level of play in 2020, but it's also the only season he produced like a true franchise wideout, including his brief spell in 2021. That stretch came without Jones, but surprisingly, Ridley actually has fared better without Jones on the field. He averaged 1.9 yards per route run with Jones alongside, but 2.1 yards per route run without him.
Given the time away from the game and the need to get integrated into this offense, I'm projecting Ridley as a Kirk-level player, bordering the line between WR1 and WR2. That version of Ridley would still be very valuable for the Jags, leaving them as one of the most complete sets of playmakers in football.
8. Miami Dolphins
With all due respect to the two star wideouts in Cincinnati and Philadelphia, the Dolphins had the best one-two punch at wide receiver last season. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle became the 24th wideout duo since the turn of the century to both finish in the top 10 among receivers in fantasy points, and they did it without their starting quarterback for a chunk of the season.
Hill's season was particularly spectacular. He averaged 3.3 yards per route run, the best mark in football by more than a half-yard. ESPN has route data going back through 2007, and his figure was the second-best mark of the past 15 seasons, behind an utterly ridiculous Steve Smith campaign from 2008, when the Panthers star averaged 3.9 yards per route run. There's little reason to believe Hill or Waddle will drop off in 2023.
So, why aren't the Dolphins higher? Everything else. Miami moved on from miscast tight end/slot receiver Mike Gesicki and replaced him with blocking tight end Eric Saubert, who set a career high for catches last year with 15. Durham Smythe is the starting inline tight end and has averaged more than 10 yards a catch once in five seasons. Braxton Berrios, who has posted solid numbers when given an opportunity to play, is likely to be the slot receiver ahead of Cedrick Wilson and Robbie Chosen, neither of whom showed much last season.
It's hard to overstate just how bad Miami's running backs were a year ago. The Dolphins had the league's highest expected yards per carry at 5.1 but instead averaged 4.3 yards per rush. They ranked last in rush yards over expectation per carry and second to last in first downs over expectation. Some of that was a truly inexplicable performance by Chase Edmonds, but Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert weren't good, either.
Well, Mostert and Wilson are back. They're joined by third-round pick Devon Achane, who combines blazing speed with a 5-foot-8, 188-pound frame. The Dolphins have been popularly linked to free agent Dalvin Cook, and the former Vikings standout would be a major upgrade on what they have in the backfield.
7. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys probably feel good about their top two wide receivers, too. Amari Cooper's departure created an opportunity for CeeDee Lamb to break out, and Lamb responded with a 1,359-yard, nine-touchdown season. Unfortunately, Dallas didn't do a great job of replacing Cooper and Cedrick Wilson, as Michael Gallup clearly wasn't 100% in his recovery from a torn ACL, and rookie third-round pick Jalen Tolbert barely saw the field.
Enter Brandin Cooks, who was impressive despite replacement-level quarterback play across his final two seasons with the Texans. Cooks was unsurprisingly at his best when he had Deshaun Watson on the field in 2020, but the former Saints, Patriots and Rams wideout continued to produce numbers with Davis Mills and others. Some of that was garbage time, as he caught a league-high 44 passes over the past three seasons when his team had no more than a 5% chance of winning, but he was productive in the few games the Texans did win. Cooks was also healthy for most of his tenure in Houston, as the time he missed in 2022 was mostly a product of his frustration over not being traded.
Unlike the Dolphins, the Cowboys have an imposing third player in running back Tony Pollard, who excelled after being shifted into the primary role a year ago. The team has stated it thinks Pollard plays best when he's used for no more than 30 snaps per game (something not always borne out by reality), and the franchise-tagged back is recovering from a fractured fibula suffered during the postseason. Pollard might take some time to ramp up in 2023, and it's likely the Cowboys will use him as the primary runner in a rotation as opposed to getting him an Ezekiel Elliott or DeMarco Murray-sized workload.
I expect Dallas to add another back between now and the start of the season, with Elliott as the most likely candidate, but I can't factor that in since the team hasn't yet made that addition to the roster. With Ronald Jones and Deuce Vaughn projected for meaningful carries and a group of young players with little experience competing for Dalton Schultz's role at tight end, the Cowboys don't have enough outside of their two star wideouts to push higher in these rankings.
One thing to watch out for: Don't be surprised if Dallas' numbers across the board decline in 2023. After parting ways with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, coach Mike McCarthy noted that he wanted his offense to run the ball more often and help keep his defense fresh. I found those claims to mostly be bunk, but the Cowboys did run 195 drives last season, the fifth most of any team. They're likely to slow down this season, leaving fewer opportunities for everyone to go around.
6. Minnesota Vikings
Here's where things get difficult. I don't need to say too much about Justin Jefferson, who is close to a consensus best receiver in football. He just turned 24, and there's a chance we haven't even seen his best, which would be a terrifying sight for opposing cornerbacks. (If you want more on Jefferson, I wrote earlier this month about his chances of becoming the greatest wide receiver ever.)
The Vikings also upgraded their biggest weakness this offseason by swapping out Adam Thielen for first-round pick Jordan Addison. Even allowing for the wide range of outcomes we see from first-round picks in their debut seasons, Thielen had grown long in the tooth. He ranked 83rd among 97 wideouts in yards per route run last season, just one spot ahead of teammate K.J. Osborn. Kirk Cousins' QBR was nearly 20 points better (in a small sample) with Thielen off the field in 2022; Addison should make an immediate impact across from Jefferson.
The Vikings ran the most plays and drives of any team last season, which helped inflate their receivers' numbers. What looked like a breakout for new tight end T.J. Hockenson was realistically just more opportunities to play. During his seven-game stretch to begin the season with the Lions, Hockenson ran 29 routes per game and was targeted on 22.4% of those routes. After joining Minnesota, he averaged just under 35 routes per game and was targeted on just over 24% of his targets.
The 2019 first-round pick was actually less efficient, as he fell from 1.8 yards per route run to 1.6 after joining the Vikings, but the added volume was king. If they do slow down in 2023 -- or if Addison is able to carve out a larger share of the offense than Thielen did -- Hockenson's numbers should fall. He's still going to be a useful tight end, but I'm not sure he's in that second tier alongside Mark Andrews and George Kittle as a receiver.
Running back is also less of a strength than it was a year ago after the Vikings cut Dalvin Cook. It's true Cook's rushing efficiency declined dramatically last season, but he had generally been an above average to very good back before 2022. The release pushes Alexander Mattison into a leading role, and Mattison wasn't very good last season, either; he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, didn't do much as a receiver and averaged minus-0.6 rushing yards over expected per carry. (Cook was at minus-0.1.) The concerns at running back are enough to keep Minnesota out of the top five.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
I went back and forth between the Seahawks and Chargers here. Both have three exciting wideouts, with a veteran and a physical force joined by a rookie first-round pick. Both don't get much out of their tight ends, despite talented options. I leaned toward Seattle having the edge because of its advantage at wide receiver, but the Chargers have a much better running back than either of the players the Seahawks will roll out.
That back, Austin Ekeler, returns after requesting a trade in March. While other backs in the past have talked about being both a rusher and a No. 2 receiver, Ekeler actually pulls it off. The 28-year-old has been targeted on more than 28% of his routes and averaged 1.8 yards per route run over the past two seasons; that's not too far off from how DK Metcalf and Diontae Johnson have profiled over that same time frame. NFL Next Gen Stats notes that Ekeler has gained 198 yards after catch more than expected over the past two seasons. He's one of the most productive backs in football, even if it comes in a unique package.
I don't think there are reasons to doubt the talent possessed by Los Angeles' three top wide receivers -- Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and new addition Quintin Johnston. My bigger issue is simply the chances they all spend 17 games on the field together. Allen is 31, and while he had put the injuries that cost him most of the 2015 and 2016 seasons in the rearview mirror, a hamstring injury limited him to 45 snaps over the first nine games of 2022.
Williams played just six snaps over a five-game stretch as he battled an ankle injury, and while he has missed only six games over the past five seasons, he's a tough receiver who has often slowed down as the year has gone along as a result of playing through injuries. Williams averaged 86.8 receiving yards per game over the first five weeks of the 2021 and 2022 seasons and 62 receiving yards per game afterward. Johnston missed time with knee and ankle injuries over his final two seasons at TCU. Johnston gives the Chargers more of a fallback plan if Allen or Williams are injured, but I hope we see all three on the field for every game this season.
4. Seattle Seahawks
This time last year, I was writing about how we would expect Seattle's playmakers to decline after Russell Wilson was swapped out for replacement-level quarterbacks. Oops. The Seahawks' offense thrived with Geno Smith last season, and their group of playmakers just got even better with the additions made by general manager John Schneider in April's draft.
We've talked about one-two punches quite a few times here, but I'm so excited to see what the top three wideouts can do in Seattle this season. Buoyed by pinpoint accuracy from Smith, we're going to be seeing highlight-reel catches from DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It seems worth noting Smith-Njigba outperformed teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave when those three were together in Ohio State during the 2021 season. Of course, Wilson and Olave were just the league's two top rookie wideouts a year ago. Smith-Njigba is coming off a season marred by hamstring injuries, but if everyone stays healthy, this could be a fearsome big three.
If anything, Metcalf was unlucky to not have had a bigger season in 2022. The hulking wideout was targeted a league-high 24 times in the end zone, giving him nine more targets than any other player in the league. Unfortunately, after catching 40% of those targets across his first three seasons in the league, he caught 20% of those targets last season. If Metcalf gets that kind of usage in the end zone again, his touchdown total should spike back toward the 12 scores he had in 2021.
The Seahawks had their own candidate in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, as running back Kenneth Walker finished second behind Wilson. While Walker put a few incredible runs on tape in an impressive season, I'm not sure the 22-year-old was as impressive on closer inspection. He was wildly inconsistent and struggled to keep the offense on schedule, as his 42% success rate ranked 41st out of 42 qualifying backs. Success rate doesn't matter if a player is hitting home runs regularly, but Walker ranked 38th out of 42 backs in DVOA.
Other metrics were more impressed. Walker ranked 24th in expected points added per rush and 11th in rushing yards over expected per carry, both of which hint toward his explosiveness and big-play ability. Given that Walker wasn't much more than a screen option in the passing game, though, you can understand why the Seahawks used a second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet. Walker is a useful player, but I don't think he was quite as dominant as the highlights would have suggested.
Seattle didn't unlock a career year out of tight end Noah Fant, who played more in a rotational role alongside Will Dissly. There's so much explosiveness here, though, with all the top players besides Lockett in their prime or about to enter it.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
I mentioned what I got wrong with the Seahawks, so let me take a little victory lap here. After the Eagles traded for A.J. Brown on draft day in 2022, I wrote about the deal and how Brown hadn't been used often enough in Tennessee. In this space last year, I speculated that the Eagles would up Brown's usage to about 85%.
Sure enough, that's exactly where Brown landed, and his numbers spiked as a result. He racked up 1,496 yards and 11 touchdowns and did so without giving up anything in terms of efficiency, as he ranked second in the NFL in yards per route run. DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia's other star wideout, ranked 18th among wideouts in the same category. It's incredible to think this team was starting Travis Fulgham, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward and even DeSean Jackson during the 2020 season.
Tight end Dallas Goedert's numbers are deflated a bit by how often he's asked to run block and by an injury that cost him five games last season, but he has been ruthlessly efficient. Over the past two seasons, his 2.4 yards per route run rank second in the NFL, just behind Mark Andrews and ahead of Travis Kelce. Those players get targeted more often and have run way more routes; Kelce has run 1,101 to Goedert's 653. Goedert is becoming particularly stellar after the catch; no tight end has topped his average of 7.3 yards after catch over that time frame.
The weak link is at running back, but even the options there are interesting. In addition to holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, the Eagles imported two new options. D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny have both been efficient when healthy, but neither has managed to stay on the field often as a pro. It's tough to count on them to suit up for 17 games, but not relying on either should allow the Eagles to keep their snap counts low and give them the best chance of lasting the entire season.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Last year, the Bengals ranked No. 1 on this list by a considerable margin. This year, they drop to No. 2. I've made the case that the Dolphins' wideout duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle was the most productive in football last season, and A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are incredible, but if you were going to pick one duo to build your team around in 2023, could you avoid choosing Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins? The only thing that slowed Chase a year ago was a hairline fracture in a hip. The Bengals averaged 28 points per game without Chase in the lineup, which should tell you just how great the rest of their offense was.
Chase and Higgins require no introduction or explanation. Tyler Boyd continues to compete for the spot as the league's best third wideout, although he dropped from 1.7 yards per route run to 1.4 last season. That might not sound like much, but it amounts to 117 fewer receiving yards over the course of the season, and it came in a season in which Chase missed meaningful time. Boyd is still a valuable third playmaker, but in a league in which Jaxon Smith-Njigba is now a third wideout, Boyd doesn't feel as luxurious.
Going from Hayden Hurst to Irv Smith at tight end is a downgrade. Smith hasn't been able to stay healthy, missing 29 of 50 possible games over the past three seasons while battling knee, hand and ankle injuries. Smith hasn't produced at a TE1 level while healthy; this is a position I'm hoping the Bengals address between now and the trade deadline.
Last season also looked like a step backward for Joe Mixon, who averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, which is the worst full-season mark of his career. Advanced metrics liked Mixon's season more than the raw numbers, though; he posted 43 rushing yards over expected and ranked 10th in Football Outsiders' version of success rate. There are questions about whether Mixon will be a cap casualty before the season -- and the Bengals lost backup Samaje Perine to free agency -- but Mixon can still be a useful back if he's on the Week 1 roster. The slight downgrades by Mixon and Boyd and the change at tight end was enough to bump Cincinnati out of the penthouse.
1. San Francisco 49ers
Well, you saw the Brock Purdy experience, right? The 49ers were third in these rankings a year ago, and then they upgraded from Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price to Christian McCaffrey at running back. Here's how that went:
SF offense, pre CMC
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) June 15, 2023
21st in DVOA
19th in EPA/play
26th in QBR
10th in Y/A
SF offense, post CMC
1st in DVOA
1st in EPA/play
2nd in QBR
2nd in Y/A
The Panthers actually improved on offense after they moved on from McCaffrey, but the star back gave coach Kyle Shanahan another torture device to use on the league's linebackers. McCaffrey averaged just under 2.0 yards per route run with a 26.6% target rate after joining the 49ers, which is right about what Garrett Wilson did over the same time frame as a receiver for the Jets. McCaffrey threw in 159 carries for 746 yards as a bonus.
Beyond the CMC addition, it was a different sort of season for the 49ers, which might inform how we feel about them in 2023. Deebo Samuel's long touchdown rate regressed toward the mean, as he went from bringing in five catches for 50 yards or more in 2021 to just one a year ago. (He added a 74-yard score in the postseason.) Samuel attributed the decline to being out of shape, which is scary when you consider he still finished second in yards after catch over expectation per target. He's clearly the best yards-after-catch receiver in the league.
Brandon Aiyuk had a ho-hum 1,015-yard, eight-touchdown season, while George Kittle finally delivered on what has felt like a yearslong touchdown deficit. He went nuclear over the final month of the season, racking up 265 receiving yards and seven touchdowns from Week 14 on. The bruising tight end missed the first two games of the season and then subsequently stayed healthy, an exciting development for a player who hasn't played a full season since that breakout campaign in 2018. Kittle is not going to average 3.0 yards per route run again like he did that season, but he has reinforced his standing as one of the best receiving tight ends in football to go with all he does as a blocker.
You can poke two holes in the 49ers' playmakers for the purposes of this piece. One is the issue I just mentioned: A lot of these guys have injury histories. Kittle has missed time every season. Samuel is yet to play a full season as a pro. McCaffrey played 10 games between 2020 and 2021. Aiyuk and Kyle Juszczyk have been relatively healthy, but San Francisco getting all of these guys on the field for most of the second half of the season was a pleasant surprise.
The other is the presence of Shanahan, who has to be regarded as the best offensive playcaller in football. He obviously makes their lives easier and puts them in position to succeed. We just saw McCaffrey hit new heights after joining the 49ers and upgrading his playcaller dramatically. Purdy played well and clearly has plenty of help, but seventh-round picks don't just turn into star point guards overnight. It's fair to wonder what these players would all look like with, say, Matt Patricia calling plays.
With that being said, which one of these guys looks like a Shanahan creation? McCaffrey was an even more devastating playmaker during his peak seasons in Carolina. Samuel looks like a preternatural runner in the open field. Kittle is one of the most physically overwhelming players in the league. I don't think Juszczyk has the sort of route-running ability to rack up chunk plays as a receiver elsewhere, so maybe you can make the case he's the player being most aided by Shanahan, but these guys would be stars no matter where they go.
If they continue to make Purdy (or Sam Darnold or even Trey Lance) look like a franchise quarterback in 2023, it'll be hard to argue against the 49ers having the best playmakers in football.