It won't be long now -- we promise -- before these summer doldrums are behind us and the NFL is in full swing, replete with intrigue. Who will surprise? Who will disappoint? Who will break out? Who will be the next to get paid?
There's no shortage of storylines as we look ahead to the 2023 NFL season. That's what makes the league so compelling. So with training camps still a couple of weeks away, we made a list of the 10 most intriguing players of the next calendar year.
What makes these guys intriguing? It varies. It might be questions about how they'll perform this season. It could be questions about their contract situation, health or place in their team's long-term plan. Whatever it is, each of the following 10 players offers at least one very compelling reason to pay attention to him over the coming season -- and even the ensuing offseason.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
There are so many different ways this year could go for Murray. He could come back hot from his season-ending torn ACL, play his tail off and prove to the Cardinals' new coaching staff and front office that he's the guy they want to build around. He could struggle to come back, play poorly and prompt the new Cards leadership to look elsewhere for its franchise QB next offseason. He could play well enough to convince a team to trade for him. And he could miss the year entirely.
Murray has six years left on the contract extension he signed with Arizona a year ago. He's making $39 million this year, and $35.3 million of his $38.85 million in 2024 compensation is already guaranteed. If he's still on the Cardinals' roster at the start of the 2024 league year, $29.9 million of his 2025 pay then becomes fully guaranteed. Murray's contract is tricky to trade or escape, but if the Cardinals don't fully believe in him by the end of this coming season, they have two first-round picks and six picks in the first three rounds of next year's draft with which to address the position.
Remember, Murray entered the league as the No. 1 pick just one year after the Cardinals had drafted QB Josh Rosen in the top 10. It's certainly no stretch to imagine Arizona changing plans if someone like USC's Caleb Williams or UNC's Drake Maye looks more appealing to them than Murray, for whatever reason.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
He wouldn't have cracked this list three weeks ago, but how could we possibly leave Diggs off now? He made headlines when he missed the first practice of Bills minicamp, and coach Sean McDermott and QB Josh Allen both said it was because of some issues Diggs was having with the team. He was back at practice the next day, but something is obviously simmering there with one of the best players on one of the best teams in the league.
We'll have to watch very closely to see if this boils over again. If the Bills struggle on offense, will Diggs let his frustrations be known? Is this the kind of thing that could shut a team's Super Bowl window earlier than expected? The Bills have felt like they were on the cusp of something great for a few years now, but if there's inner turmoil with Allen's star receiver, they could find themselves having to regroup in a big way next offseason.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
I wrestled with which running back to put here to represent the sorry state of the position's current market. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard are all on franchise tags. Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette are all free agents. J.K. Dobbins is somehow upset about his contract even though he has played a total of eight games over the past two seasons. (Seriously? Read the room, dude.)
But I picked Taylor, who's entering his fourth season with the Colts and is extension-eligible for the first time. But he is also coming off a frustrating, injury-riddled year that started with him being the consensus first overall pick in every fantasy draft and ended with just 861 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Taylor is still just 24 and scheduled to earn $4.304 million in this final year of his contract. Based on his 2022 season, when he led the league in rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns, he's worth more than that. But how much more?
Four of the top five highest-paid running backs by average annual salary signed their deals in 2020, and the other (Nick Chubb) signed his in 2021. The running back market does not move the way the market does at other positions, and teams don't seem interested in stretching to pay running backs. If you're Taylor, signing now at what you probably believe is a below-market number coming off your worst season doesn't sound great. But if you play it out and look more like your 2021 self, your best-case scenario is probably a franchise tag.
Mike Clay breaks down why Jonathan Taylor can still be a prolific fantasy option this season.
It looks very unlikely that there will be a mid-July flurry of Barkley/Jacobs/Pollard deals that reset the running back market. Maybe Taylor can be the guy who does it next year. But man, a lot of stuff would have to change around the league between now and then.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets
The most intriguing player of the 2023 offseason obviously has to crack this list. Things have reached previously unheard-of levels of hunky-dory around Rodgers and the Jets since the Packers traded him to New York. He has been at every practice, every meeting, every pro hockey and basketball game ... and even the Tony Awards. Rodgers is the toast of New York at the moment, which is a really cool thing to be. But once the season starts and the games count, there's a lot on the line for the 39-year-old Rodgers. Legacy, for one thing.
Fair or unfair, quarterbacks who've won two Super Bowls occupy a different rung in the all-time hierarchy than those who've won only one. Winning with the Jets -- a seemingly cursed franchise that hasn't had a 4,000-yard passer since Joe Namath did it 16 years before Rodgers was born -- would mean Rodgers did something like Peyton Manning did in Denver, or even (dare we say) Tom Brady did in Tampa. Falling short of the massive expectations that accompanied him to New York would leave a sour taste in everyone's mouth (presumably, his included).
And we haven't even discussed the annual intrigue that comes at the end of Rodgers' seasons these days. Will he be one-and-done in New York? Is he planning to be there two years? Three? Exciting as everything is around Rodgers right now, the serious stuff starts in a couple of months.
Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams
Donald is 32 years old and heading into the 10th season of his Hall of Fame career. He has danced around the idea of retirement in recent offseasons, and he certainly has nothing left to prove to anyone. Last year was the first of his career in which he dealt with significant injury issues (and just the second in the past five in which he wasn't Defensive Player of the Year). Donald is signed through 2024, and $5 million of his 2024 compensation is already guaranteed. If you had to place a bet, you'd probably go with Donald finishing his career with the Rams.
But what if the Rams have another lousy season and decide the best bet is to trade away more veterans and rebuild? This is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. There are a lot of questions about the Rams after they followed their Super Bowl title season up with a 5-12 campaign. If they are bad again and decide to sell at the trade deadline, could Donald go somewhere and be the missing piece to a contender's Super Bowl run, the way Von Miller was for the Rams two years ago? If healthy, Donald could be the biggest trade deadline pickup in league history -- if the Rams decide to see what they can get for him and if he's willing to leave. Yes, a lot of ifs on this one, but keep an eye on it.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
The reason Tagovailoa's situation is so intriguing? There are so many different potential outcomes, and predicting one is impossible. The issue that kept him off the field for so much of last season was concussions, and his struggles with them were so high-profile that this will be a story literally every time he takes a hit.
Concussions could derail Tagovailoa's season again, and by extension, they could derail the season of a Dolphins team that looks primed to contend in the AFC. He could get through the entire season concussion-free, play the way he played when healthy last season and lead a loaded Dolphins roster on a deep playoff run. (His 68.8 Total QBR was third in the NFL over 13 games.) Or he could get through the season concussion-free, play poorly and lead Miami to wonder next offseason whether it needs to look elsewhere for a quarterback before the team's contention window shuts.
Everybody seems to like the Dolphins' roster, and assuming there will be improvements on defense under new coordinator Vic Fangio, there's little reason to believe they can't contend. But the questions about Tua's health make it impossible to bank on that, which is why he'll be one of the most closely watched players in the league once the games begin.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
The Lions are among the most interesting teams of 2023, favored to win their division for the first time since 1993. One of the reasons they finished last season so strong was the play of Goff, who ranked second in the NFL behind only Patrick Mahomes in Total QBR from Weeks 10-18 (69.8).
Goff, who took the Rams to the Super Bowl five seasons ago, is still only 28. He's signed for the next two years at the relative bargain price of $26.48 million per year. That number, combined with his performance in 2022, makes him a candidate for an extension right now -- and he may well get one before the season starts. But he also may not, and if he doesn't, the next several months are going to determine a lot about Goff's future in the NFL.
If he has a big year and leads the Lions to the playoffs, they could decide that he's worth signing up as their long-term QB solution. (Again, he'll only be 29 next offseason.) If he flops and/or the Lions fail to live up to their preseason expectations, it will be easy for Detroit to get out of the contract next spring. Goff is due no more guaranteed money, and he would be just $5 million in dead money against the cap in 2024.
Domonique Foxworth and Sam Acho make their picks for the winner of the NFC North this season.
The partnership between Goff and Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has been special, and with Johnson turning down head-coach interview opportunities to return in the same position for this season, there's reason to believe it can lead to even bigger things for both of them.
By the way, as a side note, I could have written a lot of this same exact stuff about the Vikings' Kirk Cousins, for whom this is a pivotal year as well.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
The circumstances that clouded Watson's 2022 offseason and got him suspended for the first 11 games of last season were of his own making -- he violated the league's personal conduct policy after he was accused by more than two dozen women of sexual misconduct during massage sessions -- but the fact is his 2023 offseason is very different. Watson has been on the field with teammates, practicing throughout the offseason and preparing to play all 17 games (and hopefully more) for the Browns this year. He's also coming off a season in which he played the final six games, as opposed to last year, when he was coming off a season in which he played zero.
The Browns have plenty of reason to be optimistic that their $230 million investment in Watson will finally pay off with results on the football field. But there are obviously plenty of questions remaining. The last time Watson played a full season, he led the league in passing yards. That was three years ago, and he completed just 58.3% of his passes last season, but he doesn't even turn 28 until September.
I don't see how anybody could predict with any confidence how Watson's 2023 season is going to go. The range of potential outcomes is extensive. If it goes well, the Browns could be a legitimate AFC contender that no one's paying attention to right now. If it goes poorly, they could come out of this season wondering how to get out of an investment that will still have three fully guaranteed years left.
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
Another guy whose NFL legacy sits on a 2023 fulcrum. A year ago, Wilson was viewed as a surefire Hall of Famer, taking over a Broncos team poised to make a run at the Chiefs for the AFC West title. Then the Broncos went 5-12 and fired first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett before the season was over, while Wilson posted the worst numbers of his career. His 36.8 Total QBR ranked 27th in the NFL, and he through just 16 touchdown passes to 11 interceptions over 15 games.
In comes Sean Payton, a coach who expects to win right away and surely expects to be in Denver longer than the six years left on Wilson's contract. How much of 2022 was Hackett's fault, and how much will improve under Payton? Six or seven months from now, we could be looking at Wilson's 2022 season as a Hackett-induced blip in the middle of a fantastically successful career -- or Payton and the Broncos could be looking for a way to move on from him.
Moving on from Wilson after this year would bring on a painful dead-money hit in 2024, but by the middle of March, his $37 million 2025 salary will become fully guaranteed. Would Denver's wealthy new owners be OK with cutting the cord and taking the short-term hit if they fear a long-term disaster? A lot rides on this season for Wilson, Payton and the franchise moving forward.
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Adams forced his way out of Green Bay last offseason so he could go to the Raiders and play with his college buddy, Derek Carr. But the Raiders benched Carr late in the 2022 season and released him in February. Adams has spoken publicly about his disappointment over losing Carr, and even about his skepticism regarding the acquisition of Jimmy Garoppolo and the plan that coach Josh McDaniels is putting in place.
It seems pretty clear that Adams, in spite of his reservations, is willing to give McDaniels and Garoppolo a shot. He proved last year that he didn't need Rodgers to be a top wide receiver, and he surely believes he can perform at the same level with Garoppolo. But things could get ugly in a hurry for the Raiders, who have seen a major overhaul since McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler got there 17 months ago but don't appear to be any better. In fact, some might say they appear to be worse than the team that finished the 2021 season on a playoff run under interim coach Rich Bisaccia with Carr as its emotional leader.
If that's the case, will Adams want out? At the trade deadline? After the season? The potential for Adams to be on the move again so soon after bailing out of Green Bay is worth watching. And if it comes to that, it might be hard to blame him.