We are halfway home. A little more than that, actually, but close enough.
As teams approach the break, the shape of the MLB season has mostly emerged, and by the time we do this again in August, the trade deadline will be behind us. Some teams will have firmly set their sights on 2024 and beyond, while others will be pointed at the looming October playoff brackets. It goes by fast.
For now, while we will do our usual Stock Watch assessments of where teams stand in the great 2023 pecking order, we're going to focus our commentary at the player level by anointing a first-half MVP for each club. This is strictly ceremonial -- as far as we know, there aren't any players who have a bonus written into their contracts for Stock Watch recognition. But perhaps that's only a matter of time.
1. Atlanta Braves
Sim wins: 105.4 (change from June: +7.5)
Probabilities: 99% (division), 100% (playoffs), 24% (title)
First-half MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr. (150 AXE). You don't need advanced metrics to know Acuna is having a historic season, one that has him firmly in the driver's seat at midseason in the NL MVP race. He's on pace to top 40 homers and 70 steals. With his 40th stolen base Monday night, he became the first Brave to reach that mark before the All-Star break since Otis Nixon in 1991. And sure, we kind of suspected that these were the kind of homer and steal numbers we might get from peak Acuna. But a .335 batting average to boot? It's ridiculous. Runner-up: Sean Murphy (128 AXE).
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Sim wins: 102.7 (change: -3)
Probabilities: 94% (division), 100% (playoffs), 21% (title)
First-half MVP: Wander Franco (134 AXE). The Rays, who were passed by the rampaging Braves for the top spot in the Stock Watch rankings only a couple of days ago, landed three berths on the AL All-Star Game roster. Franco landed none of them, which is one of the more unfortunate oversights on the initial iteration of the rosters. You wonder if Franco falls prey to his advanced hype as a pure batsman with an 80-grade hit tool. His career average (.283) isn't 80-grade, but it's awfully good for a 22-year-old in an era where the league average is sub-.250. His value comes from every facet of the game, as opposed to a spike in any one category, and perhaps that, too, causes him to be overlooked. He'll get his due eventually. Runner-up: Randy Arozarena (128 AXE).
3. Texas Rangers
Sim wins: 97.4 (change: -5)
Probabilities: 80% (division), 98% (playoffs), 18% (title)
First-half MVP: Marcus Semien (133 AXE). The Rangers have gotten star-level performance from all over. And not just in terms of the hitters who have put up an MLB-high run total, but also in the field, where Texas has been a top-five unit. Semien embodies this all-around excellence as much as anyone. After a tepid Rangers debut in 2022, Semien has produced like the player who finished third in 2021 AL MVP balloting, if the shape of that production is a bit different. This version of Semien might be a better all-around player, hitting fewer homers but making a lot more contact. When he gets on base, he scores: Semien is on track to lead the AL in runs with a pace of nearly 130. Runner-up: Corey Seager (131 AXE).
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sim wins: 91.4 (change:-1.3)
Probabilities: 51% (division), 92% (playoffs), 8% (title)
First-half MVP: Mookie Betts (137 AXE). Betts has some work to do to catch Acuna, but he is having an MVP-worthy season, one that puts him in contention to become a two-league winner, matching the AL MVP Award he won with Boston in 2018. This time, Betts is doing it with raw power, with 22 homers already and a career-best .284 isolated power percentage. And he has been consistent. Betts had 29 hits, 9 homers and 22 RBIs in May, then repeated those precise totals again in June. Runner-up: Freddie Freeman (133 AXE).
5. Houston Astros
Sim wins: 91.2 (change: -3.9)
Probabilities: 18% (division), 82% (playoffs), 5% (title)
First-half MVP: Framber Valdez (130 AXE). Yordan Alvarez's injury problems opened the door for Valdez, but he's having a legitimately outstanding season. AXE figures for pitchers here reflect their production in the overall player pool, but just among pitchers, Valdez has a 139 AXE. That's tops in the majors. He has filled the ace void in Houston created by the departure of Justin Verlander. Valdez is on track to top 200 innings for the second straight season and leads the AL in ERA. Runner-up: Alvarez (123 AXE).
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sim wins: 89.7 (change: +1.7)
Probabilities: 30% (division), 85% (playoffs), 4% (title)
First-half MVP: Corbin Carroll (137 AXE). Like Betts (and Freeman, for that matter), Carroll will need a massive second half to remain in the MVP chase if Acuna keeps his current pace. But barring an injury or a collapse, Carroll is a shoo-in for NL Rookie of the Year. Carroll is a freshman with an aggressive approach at the plate, so some ebbs and flows can be expected. Indeed, he has struggled over the past couple of weeks. Still, the great thing about Carroll is that he contributes at a high level in so many ways that he can help the front-running Diamondbacks win even when the hits aren't falling. Runner-up: Ketel Marte (129 AXE).
7. Baltimore Orioles
Sim wins: 88.7 (change: +1.1)
Probabilities: 3% (division), 62% (playoffs), 1% (title)
First-half MVP: Yennier Cano (122 AXE). Just like last season, the Orioles' bullpen has been a chief driver of their success. But Cano had nothing to do with Baltimore's breakout in 2022. He was busy posting an 11.50 ERA over his first 18 big league innings -- at 28 years old. Now he has a 1.32 ERA, leads all AL pitchers in win probability added and was just voted by the players to represent the Orioles in the All-Star Game. Real suggestion: Baseball needs a Roy Hobbs Award, for the over-25 player who comes out of nowhere to achieve at a high level. Cano would take this year's easily. Runner-up: Felix Bautista (118 AXE).
8. New York Yankees
Sim wins: 88.4 (change: -3.9)
Probabilities: 2% (division), 64% (playoffs), 2% (title)
First-half MVP: Gerrit Cole (127 AXE). Cole is having a great season, one that has put him square in a crowded derby for AL Cy Young consideration. His AXE is only fractionally higher than Aaron Judge's -- you have to go an extra decimal to break the tie. Then there is a major drop to third-place Anthony Rizzo (110). Judge would rate even higher if he could stay healthy, but the real story here is that the Yankees just aren't getting that many first-division performances so far. The AL standings reflect that reality. Runner-up: Judge (127 AXE).
9. San Francisco Giants
Sim wins: 87.5 (change: +5.3)
Probabilities: 18% (division), 74% (playoffs), 3% (title)
First-half MVP: LaMonte Wade Jr. (121 AXE). The Giants have 17 players with a 100 or better AXE, including 10 at 110 or better. Wade leads the pack, but it is very much a pack, one that just like the 2021 Giants is accelerating in success by getting positive contributions from all over the roster. It just seems like San Francisco has recaptured that 107-win vibe, in which every time the Giants needed a player for a specific spot, they had him on the bench. And Gabe Kapler seems to pull the right lever every time. Wade is an appropriate AXE leader, because despite his overall fine play, he's still pretty much a platoon player. He has started just seven games against lefties. Runner-up: Thairo Estrada (118 AXE).
10. Toronto Blue Jays
Sim wins: 86 (change: -3.5)
Probabilities: 1% (division), 44% (playoffs), 1% (title)
First-half MVP: Bo Bichette (131 AXE). In terms of balancing the position player dial between offense and defense, the Blue Jays turned things a little more toward glovework with their 2023 roster construction. It has worked -- Toronto has played great defense -- but the offense has muddled in the middle of the pack. The Blue Jays could use more performers like Bichette, who is just good at everything. He's on track to lead the AL in hits for the third straight season, but this time is on pace to top 200 hits for the first time. Runner-up: Kevin Gausman (126 AXE).
11. Miami Marlins
Sim wins: 85 (change: +3.6)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 51% (playoffs), 1% (title)
First-half MVP: Luis Arraez (128 AXE). Arraez, as you probably are aware, is making a spirited run at hitting .400 and is on pace for 225 hits. He is a maestro at the plate and one at the peak of his form. For that mastery, the fans voted him to start in the All-Star Game, and he deserves it. What should also be underscored about Arraez, and the furor that has sprouted around him even though he plays for a team that garners little national attention, is that it sure seems that people dig batting average. Still. As baseball continues to reshape itself, this is good to know. It shouldn't all be about the home runs. Runner-up: Jesus Luzardo (117 AXE).
12. Philadelphia Phillies
Sim wins: 85 (change: +5.5)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 53% (playoffs), 2% (title)
First-half MVP: Zack Wheeler (120 AXE). Those with short memories might not remember last season, when an underachieving Phillies team kept staving off collapse, caught fire just in time and wound up two wins short of a championship. This year's Phils similarly disappointed early, especially considering they added Trea Turner to the mix over the winter, but a strong June has Philadelphia hanging around once again. Wheeler hasn't been a source of those wild swings -- he has been steady throughout, with a superficial ERA (4.03) that has been inflated by some combination of bad luck and the play of the defenders behind him. Runner-up: Nick Castellanos (119 AXE).
13. Minnesota Twins
Sim wins: 84.4 (change: -2.4)
Probabilities: 71% (division), 72% (playoffs), 3% (title)
First-half MVP: Sonny Gray (129 AXE). Gray leads the AL in ERA+ (173) and fewest homers allowed per nine innings (0.3). The latter number is eye-popping: Gray has given up just three dingers to the 393 batters he has faced. Gray is doing what he has always done but just taken it all to a higher level. He's the Twins' clear AXE leader and part of that crowd atop the AL Cy Young pool. But behind him on the Minnesota list are Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. You might notice that those are all starting pitchers. The top position player has been utility guy Willi Castro (110 AXE), while the top regular has been Byron Buxton (106). It's been an uneven first half for the sub-.500 -- and first-place -- Twins. Runner-up: Ober (119 AXE).
14. Los Angeles Angels
Sim wins: 83.8 (change: +1)
Probabilities: 1% (division), 25% (playoffs), 1% (title)
First-half MVP: Shohei Ohtani (167 AXE). We've already mentioned Acuna and his historic paces. Here's another: Acuna is on pace to score 148 runs, which would be the most in the majors since Jeff Bagwell scored 152 in 2000. Despite all of that, Ohtani's total production has exceeded Acuna's by 1.7 standard deviations. Ohtani was already atop the AL AXE list before the Shohei Experience went full blast in June: .394/.492/.952, 15 homers, 29 RBIs, 27 runs in 27 games ... at the plate. He also had a 3.26 ERA on the mound with 37 strikeouts over five starts. You can't describe this player. Someone like Wordsworth or Coleridge needs to step up to do it. Runner-up: Mike Trout (128 AXE).
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Sim wins: 82.9 (change: -0.9)
Probabilities: 41% (division), 47% (playoffs), 1% (title)
First-half MVP: Christian Yelich (121 AXE). Yelich is not back to his MVP self. But the current iteration of Yeli remains a first-division performer. No, it's not as spectacular as it was, but after a sleepy first month, Yelich has hit .308/.407/.505 with seven homers and 14 steals. The Brewers' offense has struggled terribly and undermined a roster that is good at everything else. And, sure, the version of Yelich that hits 40-plus homers would help paper over that weakness. Still, Yelich is the least of Milwaukee's hitting woes. Runner-up: William Contreras (112 AXE).
16. Cincinnati Reds
Sim wins: 82.1 (change: +8.3)
Probabilities: 31% (division), 38% (playoffs), 1% (title)
First-half MVP: TJ Friedl (122 AXE). These numbers are snapshots, and it's fair to wonder if Friedl would occupy this spot had Matt McLain or Elly De La Cruz been there from the start of the season. Still, the 27-year-old Friedl has been a veteran backbone on this nascent contender. He gets the bat on the ball (.309 average), shows occasional pop, has stolen 14 of 15 bags and played elite defense. He's not a platoon guy, either, as the lefty swinger has a .406 average against southpaws in 2023, lifting his career mark to .375. Runner-up: Alexis Diaz (121 AXE).
17. Boston Red Sox
Sim wins: 81.8 (change: +1.1)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 14% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Alex Verdugo (121 AXE). Verdugo isn't a perfect player. He doesn't hit for much power, and he doesn't hit for power against lefties much at all. But he makes contact, hits in the .280 to .300 range every season and posts consistently outstanding defensive metrics. He had a good case for making the AL All-Star roster. He'll never be Betts, but he's a good player in his own right. Runner-up: Brayan Bello (115 AXE).
18. Cleveland Guardians
Sim wins: 80.2 (change: +3.7)
Probabilities: 25% (division), 27% (playoffs), 1% (title)
First-half MVP: Jose Ramirez (134 AXE). Ramirez has been the Guardians' franchise player for a long time now. However, it's arguable that his terrific half has been more essential for Cleveland than ever, thanks to slow starts up and down the lineup. Ramirez would be right in the MVP mix in a version of the AL that didn't include Ohtani. In some ways, that's the story of Ramirez's career. He's going to finish among the top 10 in MVP balloting for the sixth time in seven years, but he has never won. Nor did he make the two-player Phase 2 runoff vote at third base in the All-Star selection process, finishing behind Josh Jung and Matt Chapman in Phase 1. Runner-up: Shane Bieber (116 AXE).
19. Chicago Cubs
Sim wins: 80 (change: +3.7)
Probabilities: 22% (division), 27% (playoffs), 1% (title)
First-half MVP: Marcus Stroman (128 AXE). The Cubs' middle-of-the-pack standing is the product of a strange mix of production, with most positions rating in either the top or bottom eight across MLB. There's very little in between. Stroman has been the co-ace for the North Siders, along with fellow All-Star Justin Steele, topping a rotation that has helped keep the Cubs somewhat afloat in the soft NL Central. If the Cubs' roster leaks lead to a July sinking, Stroman could emerge as one of the most impactful acquisitions for a contender when the trade deadline arrives. Runner-up: Steele (126 AXE).
20. Seattle Mariners
Sim wins: 79.9 (change: +0.6)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 8% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: George Kirby (119 AXE). Kirby deserved to be the Mariners' default All-Star over the more well-known Luis Castillo. It's not so much that Castillo didn't deserve to go, but more that Kirby has just been better. In his second season, Kirby has established himself as one of baseball's most precise pitchers by posting a walk rate that is easily baseball's best since he arrived in the majors. He has walked just 3.3% of opposing hitters during that time, less than half the MLB average (7.2%). Second-place Zack Greinke is at 4.2%. Runner-up: Jarred Kelenic (116 AXE).
21. San Diego Padres
Sim wins: 79.7 (change: -3)
Probabilities: 1% (division), 19% (playoffs), 1% (title)
First-half MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (133 AXE). The Padres are one of baseball's most disappointing teams. The star-laden roster of hitters has gotten three elite-level performances: Tatis, Juan Soto (131 AXE) and Ha-Seong Kim (130). And yet, here we are, with the $249 million Padres closer to the last-place Rockies than the third-place Giants in a promising NL West race. It's not Tatis' fault, as he has been terrific even as he is still ramping back up to his pre-suspension offensive numbers. His move to the outfield has supercharged his overall value (his fielding at shortstop made him barely replacement level on defense despite the positional value of that spot) and was easily accommodated on a San Diego roster bursting with natural shortstops. You might blame Tatis for not being there during the Padres' 9-11 start, but then again, they are just 29-35 since he came back. Runner-up: Soto (131 AXE).
22. New York Mets
Sim wins: 76.4 (change: -3.3)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 6% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Brandon Nimmo (123 AXE). With Nimmo, there is certainty. When he's healthy, that is. But when he's in the lineup, you know what you're going to get: Nimmo had a 131 OPS+ in 2021, a 131 OPS+ in 2022 and so far in 2023, his OPS+ is, you guessed it, 131. Nimmo isn't perfect. He doesn't hit for power against lefties (zero homers against southpaws this season) even though he hits for average and gets on base against them. Still, he provides solid defense and steady production. Steady isn't a thing the Mets have enough of. Runner-up: Francisco Lindor (121 AXE).
23. St. Louis Cardinals
Sim wins: 74.6 (change: -3.4)
Probabilities: 4% (division), 5% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Paul Goldschmidt (123 AXE). No, Goldschmidt isn't producing like he did during his NL MVP campaign of 2022. He's still one of the best players in the league. He has the same strikeout and walk rates as last season. And according to Statcast, his average exit velocity is at a career-best 93.5 mph, and his barrel rate (13.4%) is way ahead of 2022 (11.6%). As good as he's been, there is plenty of evidence Goldschmidt's results going forward are going to be even better. Runner-up: Jordan Montgomery (117 AXE).
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
Sim wins: 74.1 (change: -6.3)
Probabilities: 2% (division), 3% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Mitch Keller (121 AXE). Keller has been one of baseball's most improved players, converting faded prospect hype into big league production far more consistently than he ever has done. His transformation began last season, and in 2023, he has built on and consolidated those gains, adding 2.3 strikeouts per nine to his whiff ratio while cutting a full walk per nine. For the first time, Keller has been dependable, with a 65% rate of quality starts and an average game score (58.3) that ranks 17th in the majors. Runner-up: Jack Suwinski (116 AXE).
25. Chicago White Sox
Sim wins: 73.1 (change: -0.3)
Probabilities: 3% (division), 3% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Luis Robert (135 AXE). With all due respect to solid hurlers Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease, Robert has been Gulliver in the South Side version of Lilliput this season. His AXE keeps climbing and in this snapshot ranks second in the AL, albeit a light-year from Ohtani's staggering 167. Since the beginning of May, Robert has a 1.040 OPS with 19 homers, giving him a robust 24 as we reach the Fourth of July. Robert has to stay healthy, but apparently he's feeling ship-shape in the wake of some muscle-pull issues earlier. After a season of running sparingly, Robert has swiped four bases over the past week. The White Sox's single-season homer record is the 49 Albert Belle hit in 1998. Just sayin'. Runner-up: Giolito (114 AXE).
26. Detroit Tigers
Sim wins: 71.3 (change: +2.8)
Probabilities: 1% (division), 1% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Eduardo Rodriguez (119 AXE). While I wouldn't call AXE leadership a case of damning anyone with faint praise, the fact remains that E-Rod tops the chart in Detroit even though he hasn't pitched since suffering a finger injury in late May. (He's reportedly going to return to big league action this week.) Rodriguez was outstanding before the injury, posting a 2.13 ERA, including one stretch in which he allowed just one run in 35 2/3 innings over five starts. Incidentally, the Tigers' AXE runner-up is injured outfielder Riley Greene, who has been out since May 30. Runner-up: Greene (113 AXE).
27. Washington Nationals
Sim wins: 66.3 (change: -0.4)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Jeimer Candelario (122 AXE). Candelario's standard numbers are very good. Those include a 128 OPS+ and 40 extra-base hits along with league-average defense at third base. He gets an added boost from the contextual part of the AXE formula, ranking 22nd in win probability added, and his OPS with runners in scoring position is .870. The Nationals have been less terrible than expected, and it's solid performances by unsung veterans like Candelario, Lane Thomas and Stone Garrett that have mostly been responsible for that. Runner-up: Thomas (120 AXE).
28. Colorado Rockies
Sim wins: 60 (change: -4.7)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Ryan McMahon (118 AXE). McMahon could be a vital cog on a good team that could better shield him from his weaknesses. He doesn't hit lefties well and strikes out way too much. But he's a league-average-ish hitter against righties and has a great glove that can be deployed at three spots in the infield on a regular basis. It would be great to see what a club like the Rays, Dodgers or Giants could do with this guy. As it is, he's the best of what the Rockies have for now. Runner-up: Ezequiel Tovar (111 AXE).
29. Kansas City Royals
Sim wins: 54.3 (change: -3)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Maikel Garcia (111 AXE). Garcia didn't play his first game in the majors until May 2. He has hit three home runs. He has hit for average (.298) and has wheels (13 for 14 in steals). But it's not the dossier you expect to see from a team MVP to date. It's been that kind of season for the Royals. Runner-up: Nicky Lopez (106 AXE).
30. Oakland Athletics
Sim wins: 46.8 (change: +2.4)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
First-half MVP: Ryan Noda (109 AXE). Noda probably could have been Oakland's default All-Star as well as Brent Rooker, who made it, but neither player has really been All-Star-worthy. Still, Noda has done some nice things. His game is pockmarked with holes, but he leads the AL in walks (57) and has gotten on base at a .384 clip. That has real value. Noda's eight homers and .400 slugging aren't really what you want from a regular first baseman. Also, the A's have started him just five times against lefties, against whom he has hit .194. Runner-up: Rooker (108 AXE).